2019 and the realigning of forces – a non aligned opinion

By Joseph Edgar… Nigerian political terrain has never been cast in finite moulds. It continues to shift according to the forces of self interest and the continued power dynamics that ensures full and total control of the levers of state by whoever finds himself in the seat of power.

It is in this sense that i begin to look at Peesident Buhari with pity. He came in with a major mandate freely given by the people to amongst others stem the tide of corruption which was speedily taking us into the committee of failed states. He was also instructed by the Nigerian people to repair the economy and give us back our sanity.

To emerge, he had to first build a consensus structure that would enable him defeat the awesome but weakened machinery of the PDP and there lies the seed of his imminent defeat.

All sorts of strange bedfellows gathered: from the pseudo yoruba strong south west block led by its leader, the Asiwaju, through the renegade elements from PDP led by Saraki and Amaechi to the northern elements of the CPC, and let’s not forget the remnants of the Yar’Adua political movement led by the shrewd Atiku Abubakar.

In building this consensus ideology, personal ambition and past intrigues and alliances were temporarily set aside to deliver the Buhari Presidency.

The war was won and immediately the cracks began to show. To fulfill his electionary promises, the president immediately embarked on a robust and very cohesive battle against corruption and in so doing started biting the fingers that fed him.

This has led to the realization that to escape judicial probe you have to join the wininng party like the case of the recent cross carpeting by Orji Kalu, the former Governor of Abia State who happens to be in court for fraud related issues. Now at first glance you would think that this movements would impact positively on the ruling party, but on second look you will see that it continues to dilute power within its enclave with strong political forces converging while still handling the controls of their foot soldiers within their blocks.

As we get closer to 2019 we will begin to see strange realignments, wants based on wicked calculations on where power will swing. We will begin to see strange bedfellows once again huddle in the middle of the night to discuss their self interest and how they can come together to make sure they do not ‘lose out this time’. The ondo state election debacle is a strong pointer to this with the two parties not being able to throw up universally acceptable candidates and with the Asiwaju holding talks with a known opponent Mimiko in a bid to build a bridge.

The real question here is how firmly does the sitting President hold the ruling party? In the event of his planning to run for a second term, would he be able to control party machinery to his benefit. I think not. His party Chairman is a light weight who finds it difficult to garner party support as we saw during the last elections in Edo State which happened to be his home stand. The incumbent governor played a big role in placing a governor with no political base in power thereby risking the delivery of the State in 2019

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As we move closer to 2019, the grounds have expectedly started shifting. Rumors of the Asiwaju and the Senate President forming third parties are rife. Whether these stories are true or not it shows very clearly the problem the President will have in attempting to use the APC contraption for his purposes, if he is running.
His continued corruption battle while saving Nigeria will be his greatest undoing for those he has been after and who have been running into his APC for cover becuase of the seeming one sided nature of the battle will do everything within their powers to ensure that a new and more mailable President will be in power at that time.

This is the most effective use of the opposition because they will fight from within and weaken party structures and cohesion. Already Atiku and El Rufai have started showing their hands with the shots they have been firing at themselves. The Asiwaju although weakened is still a portent force and we are no longer sure of his loyalty within the ranks as he has started rebuilding fences with his brothers in the south west.

People like Fayose have started speaking in his support and he is still very lethal in the region becuase of his total and full control of Lagos. Can the President mobilize the North with his legendary control of the masses in that zone? Like I have said, his corruption battle which has been fierce may have alienated some of the greatest mobilizers in that region as you see people in sokoto protesting in favour of Jonathan. Although the protest was a joke, we still cannot miss the symbolism.

The greatest undoing for the President is the economy. The economy is in tatters and that is what really matters to the people not the amount of people you catch stealing except the funds stolen are thrown back quickly into the economy. I see his opponents in 2019 throwing the rotten tomatoes of the economy at him from all sides, I see the little but significant human rights abuses being an issue, I see the administration making Robin Hood type heroes from villains like Dasuki and Fani Kayode and this working against it during the elections.

The movement is not interesting becuase it is all so predictable and monotonous, I can safely place my bet on those that would throw themselves in the ring with a fairly strong sense of accuracy. This is our Nigeria nothing new ever happens not even the change they promised us.

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