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2023: Fresh poll expects Tinubu to win popular vote, run-off possible



A survey carried out by a civil society organization, Enough Is Enough (EiE) and a research firm, SBM Intelligence, has predicted a possible victory for the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in the February 25 election.

The report of the survey carried out among 11,534 respondents across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) was published on Friday.

The survey, according to the organizations, projected Tinubu to win popular votes in the major states across the South-West and North-West.

This, however, depends on the voters’ turnout in the two regions.

The report also refused to rule out the first presidential election run-off in the country’s history with the duo of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and his Labour Party counterpart, Peter Obi, projected to win 25 percent of votes in at least 24 states.

It also expected the APC to win 60 seats in the Senate with the remaining 48 going to the PDP.

READ ALSO: Tinubu will win in 2023 with or without Afenifere’s support —Ex-minister, Shittu

The report read: “The path to Aso Rock has been riddled with permutations and scenario planning primarily because, for the first time since the era of parliamentary democracy in the 1960s, there are three competitive political blocs, broadly distributed along the eastern, northern, and western regional divides with a smattering of swing states where they must compete for absolute votes and vote share. Unfortunately, there isn’t as much interest in the down-ballot races.

“Turnout will increase in the elections, but some states will experience a low turnout. Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar will score 25 percent in at least 24 states.

“Depending on turnout in Kano, Lagos, and a few other states in the NW and SW, Bola Tinubu could win the popular vote, setting Nigeria up for a runoff election for the first time ever.

“The APC could win 60 seats in the Senate, while the PDP may win 46 seats, leaving a margin of three seats which could go either way or could be taken by third parties.

“In the House, we believe that the APC may lose its majority and win 160 seats, and the PDP may win 185 seats, leaving 15 seats to go either way or to smaller parties.”

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