Analysis… 2023: Romancing Wike, eyeing Tinubu, Makinde digging a political grave?

Oyo State Governor, Engineer Seyi Makinde has been the object of opprobrium by members of his People’s Democratic Party (PDP) following his alleged subtle endorsement of the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC) Bola Tinubu.

Social media went agog penultimate weekend when a short video went viral showing the Deputy Governor of Oyo State, Bayo Lawal purportedly endorsing Tinubu, on behalf of Makinde. The deputy governor spoke at an event by a faction of the Yoruba apex Socio-cultural group, Afenifere, at the residence of its erstwhile leader, Pa Reuben Fasoranti, in Ondo State. Media reports confirm that the nonagenarian placed his hand on Tinubu to pray for him, but this was interpreted as an endorsement of the former Lagos State governor to be President.

Lawal who represented Governor Makinde at the event stated that his principal supports the interest of the Yoruba ethnic group; this also was interpreted as an endorsement of Tinubu. His words in the short video are: “Since he (Makinde) became governor, he doesn’t joke with Yoruba matters. There is no time that father would call him that he would fail to respond. Whenever there is an event, either organised by Afenifere or any other Yoruba group, Gov Makinde will always be supportive. Though we are not of the same political affiliation, but we are bound by ethnicity. Yoruba land, whatever it is you are doing, he (Makinde) is in support.”

The purported endorsement has unsettled many members of the party in the state, particularly those contesting legislative positions in the 2023 general elections. Some have come out to distance themselves from the purported endorsement, while others are grumbling as the governor’s stance will likely affect their performance at the polls.

Has Makinde endorsed Tinubu?

Meanwhile, has Governor Makinde really endorsed the APC candidate as it is being speculated by the media? The video recording of Lawal does not give enough credence to this claim, as the DG did not mention Tinubu’s name. The video shows that he, on behalf of the governor, pledged support for Yoruba’s interest as championed by Afenifere; it should be noted that Afenifere, under the leadership of Pa Ayo Adebanjo as a group endorsed Peter Obi of Labour Party, against Tinubu.

In addition, the governor has not openly endorsed Tinubu, even though he has refused to participate in the campaign of his party’s presidential candidate. However, it is being rumored that Makinde might work for Tinubu in the Presidential election, after all, he already openly declared his support for a president from the southern region.

Makinde is one of the G5 governors who have taken a backseat to the candidacy of Atiku Abubakar. The group, led by Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, also has Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia, and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu). Although the governors’ opposition is masked in an agitation for regional equality and fairness, as Wike maintains that the National Chairman of PDP, Iyorcha Ayu must step down for a Southerner, it seems there is more to the matter than meets the eyes. Their refusal to support the former Vice President for the country’s number one seat threatens the party’s chances of muscling power from the APC in 2023. The big question is: do they want APC to remain in power beyond 2023?

Can Makinde afford to work for Tinubu?

Unlike the other aggrieved PDP governors, Makinde is the only one of them contesting a second term in 2023. While others do not have much to lose, Makinde might jeopardise his political career if he continues in this political tango with Wike and others.

Election for Presidential and federal legislative positions is held first, and the outcome usually influences results of the governorship election which comes two weeks after. The momentum garnered by the victorious parties in the first election often helps them to perform well in the governorship election. Working against his party in the presidential election will not only adversely affect PDP candidates for Senate and House of Representatives, it would also affect Makinde’s performance in the governorship contest. His reelection is being challenged by APC’s Teslim Folarin, who currently represents Oyo Central in the Senate, and Adebayo Adelabu of Accord Party, who was runner up to Makinde in 2019 when he contested under APC.

It should be noted that Oyo State is not particularly a PDP state, Makinde only benefitted from a popular vendetta against late Governor Abiola Ajimobi in 2019. The people’s refusal to vote APC’s Adelabu, was mainly to express their grievance against Ajimobi who endorsed him as his preferred successor.

READ ALSO:2023: Makinde, Oyo PDP leaders at loggerheads over support for Atiku

Tinubu is expected to sweep all South-West states, including Oyo, but if Tinubu’s victory in Oyo translates to victory for APC National Assembly candidates in the state, it is game over for Makinde.

Contrary to what is being portrayed on Social media, Makinde’s popularity in Oyo State is actually dwindling. He has already lost the coalition of heavyweight politicians that installed him against the massive war chest of late Ajimobi, in 2019, and many of the ordinary people whose goodwill he counts on, are not very pleased with him. Apart from the people’s goodwill, which he definitely enjoys, the political optics in the state do not favor him.

Can he campaign for Atiku?

While working for Tinubu may be suicidal to his ambition for second term, campaigning for Atiku will not do him much good either.

First, Tinubu does not need Makinde’s support to win Oyo State. The people of Oke Ogun who suffered most casualties from the herders’ attacks in 2019/2020 are yet to forgive the governor for the way he handled the situation; asking them to vote for a Fulani man to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari might trigger their resentment. In Ogbomoso and Oyo towns, Tinubu will ride on the goodwill of his late friends, former Governor Alao Akala and the late Alaafin Lamidi Adeyemi III, whose children, Olamiju Adeyemi and Akeem Adeyemi, are contesting for the House of Reps seat in their respective constituencies, under APC. While Olamiju, a former council chair, is running for the first time, Akeem is a two-term Reps member seeking a third term in office.

Similarly, the voting pattern during the Presidential and National Assembly elections in Oyo State has always been unilateral.

Analysts are convinced that the Tinubu “Emi lokan” wave will score thousands of votes for the party’s National Assembly candidates, putting the candidacy of the strongest PDP grassroots mobilizers like KPMG boss, Joseph Tegbe, who is running for the Oyo South senatorial seat, in jeopardy.

This indicates that if Makinde supports the presidential bid of Tinubu, he’ll be digging the grave for his own political death two weeks after. But by campaigning for his party’s candidate, Atiku, he also faces a political dilemma. The most popular notion in the state and the Southwestern region generally is that supporting another Fulani man to succeed Buhari, who is completing the maximum two terms, is not acceptable, a development that has been emboldened by the candidacy of Tinubu, a Yoruba man that enjoys popular support at the grassroots.

So by campaigning for Atiku, his party’s candidate, Makinde will have to convince residents of the state that such a move is the best for the country’s unity. Interestingly, Makinde himself had argued on several occasions that power should rotate back to the south.

Makinde Has Many Ex-friends. Perhaps, Too Many

When Makinde was elected in 2019, he enjoyed the support of a coalition that involved the four leading opposition parties in the state. Upon assuming office, he reneged on his promises to several stakeholders in these parties. Feelers in the state are that these stakeholders, who have adopted a ‘Switzerland’ stand over the past few years, are prepared to mobilize against him at the polls.

Aside from this, many stakeholders and major grassroots mobilizers within his party who worked for his emergence have fallen out with him. Some of these stakeholders like former Reps Leader, Mulikat Akande Adeola, Ibadan political chieftain, Adebisi Olopoeyan have left the party with a full determination to ensure Makinde does not return to office.

Makinde seems to be walking on eggshells, and unless he does not care about winning his second term election, he has to walk with care.

By Oluwatobi Odeyinka

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