ANALYSIS: Atiku, hoping to win 2023 election without the crucial votes

From all indications, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2023 general elections, Atiku Abubakar is not a good student of history, and is about to be served a rude awakening, as he has opted to discard crucial votes that would boost his chances of clinching victory at the polls. Except a last minute negotiation, and agreement is reached, Atiku is about to be served the same meal he and his allies served then President Goodluck Jonathan in the run up to the 2015 presidential election.

At that time, Atiku and other prominent members of the then ruling party under Jonathan left the PDP to form what they tagged the New PDP (nPDP) as expression of their grievances with the Jonathan government and how the party was being run. They left the party and pitched their tent with the All Progressives Congress (APC) pulling a significant chunk of vote for Muhammadu Buhari who went on to defeat an incumbent president.

Whoever his advisers were at the time, including the PDP national chairman, Bamanga Tukur, and later Adamu Mua’zu, they must have advised Jonathan to ignore the nPDP members, that they were irrelevant to winning the elections, and Jonathan must have listened to them, because little effort was made to appease them before they dumped the party. There were insinuations then even, that Mua’zu worked for the opposition against Jonathan. Whatever it was, Jonathan got a shock of his life.

Atiku seems to be heading down that route, as he continues to ignore the party’s henchmen and loyalist who have over time proven to be in firm control of their states, delivering majority votes to the PDP at every election, even though they have had to work in the midst of the opposition party in power.

Two of such prominent politicians Atiku is ignoring in the run up to the 2023 elections, which may spell doom for him is Governor Nyesom Wike of RIvers State, and Chief Dan Orbih, the PDP vice chairman, South-South whose major base is Edo State. And Atiku is well on the way to losing both states that have always given PDP an edge in many presidential elections.

According to records, Rivers State has given the PDP the highest number of votes in all presidential elections than any other state since 1999. In fact, during the 2019 presidential elections, a number of PDP governors reportedly made secret deals to hand over their presidential votes to Buhari, but only Rivers State resisted by casting its highest ballots for the PDP.

By summing the number of votes scored by the PDP in all presidential elections from 1999 to 2019 in each state, no other state has given the party more votes than Rivers.

PDP had its best outing in Rivers State in 1999. It got 1,352,275 votes in the state, which accounted for 86.4% of the total votes in the state. The party got its second highest in Kaduna where it got 1,294,679 which was 77.2% of the total votes from the state.

Again, PDP got its highest votes from Rivers state in 2003. Olusegun Obasanjo, going for a second term got 2,003,521 (92.7%) votes from the state.

2011 – The party got 1,817,762 votes in Rivers, the highest compared to all other states.

2015 – Jonathan also got his highest votes from Rivers State, with 1,487,075 votes, 94.99% of the total number of votes cast in the state.

But in 2019 its outing in Rivers was poor. It got 473,971 votes lesser than it polled in Kaduna, Plateau, Delta, and Anambra states. PDP’s highest votes in 2019 were from Kaduna State where it polled 649,612, although APC won that state.

Going by the above, it would be foolhardy for a presidential candidate, especially one on the PDP platform to ignore such crucial votes, by opting to turn his back on the state.

READ ALSO:ANALYSIS: As Ayu fights the PDP curse of disgracing its national chairman out of office

For Chief Orbih in Edo State, he has also proven time and time again that he holds the aces as far as Edo votes are concerned, as he has been able to pull off surprises, even in the midst of the opposition party in power in the state. When Atiku went to Edo to campaign, the Legacy Group, headed by Orbih was nowhere to be seen, signaling a bad omen for Atiku, as far as Edo votes are concerned. Even though Governor Godwin Obaseki welcomed and campaigned with Atiku, it is well known in the south-south state that Obaseki does not control the grassroots structures of PDP in that state. He was brought to power by the same structure against the powers that be. And tried as he may to have wrestled the power and structure of the party from Orbih, he has not succeeded in doing that. Obaseki is a technocrat, and not an astute politician who has been on ground, or knows how to play the game to get the numbers.

It was the tussle for control that led to conduct of parallel primaries that produced different candidates for elective positions in the forthcoming 2023 poll by the two factions of the party in the state last May. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognized and published the names from the Orbih faction’s primaries, as the recognised contestants for the PDP from Edo State in the 2023 election. INEC said its decision was based on a court order declaring the Orbih faction the authentic executive of the party in the state.

It took another court order for Obaseki to get a reprieve, which is yet to sink down to the grassroots, as reconciliatory arrangements have not yielded the desired results. So, while Obaseki may have the candidates, he is not likely to have the votes.

It is also worthy to note that it was the Orbih’s faction that produced all delegates that participated in the PDP presidential primary that produced Atiku as the flag bearer of the party for the 2023 election, making a mockery of Obaseki who is obviously not the one controlling the Edo State structure of the PDP. Without Orbih, Obaseki can’t guarantee Edo for Atiku.

Before the coming of Obaseki as governor in the state, the Legacy Group led the party to win the presidential election in the state, even though Adams Oshiomhole, a two term governor of the state, and another former governor of Edo State, John Odigie-Oyegun, was incumbent national chairman of the APC at the time fought hard against him. As state chairman of the PDP at the time, Orbih led his party to victory.

In 2019, while Obaseki was still a member of APC and Oshiomhole was its national chairman, Orbih again led the PDP to gather the highest number of votes in the state for Atiku who was the presidential candidate in that election too. Without a sitting governor, Orbih as PDP state chairman led the party to win the election in Edo State for Atiku that year, he won two senatorial seats and other seats in the Federal House of Representatives, which was no mean feat.

It is also on record that soon as Orbih accepted Obaseki, who had a fall out with his political godfather, Oshiomhole, he (Obaseki) coasted victory in his bid for a second term in office as governor in 2020. Orbih led Obaseki to win the Edo governorship election on the PDP platform with a wide margin fighting against Oshimhole who had just left office as national chairman of the APC.

Atiku, if serious to win the presidential election in 2023, would be shooting himself on the foot by ignoring those who have expressed grievances within the party, especially individuals and groups who can deliver the needed votes. His decision to back Iyorchia Ayu may just be his undoing. For a politician of his standing who has been in the game for so many years, one wonders what he sees in Ayu to make him go against those who can guarantee him votes, given the kind of opposition he stands against.

At the end of the day, how many votes can Ayu bring to the table, versus the number of votes Wike, Orbih and the others he is ignoring will fetch him?
Atiku seems to have put a cyanide capsule between his teeth, will he bite on it by holding firm to Ayu, committing political suicide. Or, will he spit it (Ayu) out and embrace those who will guarantee him votes to increase his chances at the polls against APC and the fast rising Labour Party?

Join the conversation

Opinions

Support Ripples Nigeria, hold up solutions journalism

Balanced, fearless journalism driven by data comes at huge financial costs.

As a media platform, we hold leadership accountable and will not trade the right to press freedom and free speech for a piece of cake.

If you like what we do, and are ready to uphold solutions journalism, kindly donate to the Ripples Nigeria cause.

Your support would help to ensure that citizens and institutions continue to have free access to credible and reliable information for societal development.

Donate Now