ANALYSIS: Between Atiku’s promise to South-East and PDP chances at the presidential poll

As Nigeria prepares for yet another historic election in a few months’ time, expectations are high as per who will eventually take the baton from President Muhammadu Buhari for the next four or eight years.

Given the popularity of the major presidential candidates fielded by the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), it is not illogical to argue that each of these candidates is constrained by one or more issues in their parties that have grown to be determining factors in the race.

While Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC is trapped in the continuous war of having to justify his reason for picking a Muslim running mate, Peter Obi is confronted with a party embroiled in crisis yet determined to take Nigeria away from the doldrums.

In the case of Atiku Abubakar, a two-term Vice President from 1999-2007, what appears to be his major constraint is the internal crisis rocking his party as a result of the failure of its National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, to step down as promised before the primaries held in May 2022.

Key members of the party, including Governors Nyeson Wike of Rivers State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, had decided to stay aloof from activities that will shape Atiku’s chances in the race. This has continued to dim the opportunity of the party to wrest power from the ruling party, as every reconciliation strategy has not proven to tame the crisis.

Amid this volatile situation, the former Vice President in Awka, Anambra State during a recent visit, wooed supporters. In what can be taken as campaign strategy, Atiku reiterated his commitment to bequeath the presidency to the south-east, a region that has always protested their percieved exclusion from national politics, a consequence of which ignited the secessionist agitations ongoing there.

While addressing supporters, Atiku promised to unite Nigerians by treating each zone equitably and providing security for everyone. He said: “My vision and mission as the president is to unite Nigeria, bring peace and provide adequate security for the people of Nigeria.

“I am the stepping stone to an Igbo presidency. Vote for me and you will not regret doing so. I promise not to disappoint you.”

This was not different from his words when he met with PDP southeast zonal stakeholders in Enugu in September same year. The Vice President insisted he had chosen running mates in past election cycles from the south-east, adding that he would support the process to ensure an Igbo president if he wins the 2023 presidential election.

However, the possibility of this weighty promise coming to pass depends on how much Atiku works to ensure key members of his party close ranks ahead of the polls. It is significant to say that the current state of the major opposition party sends wrong signals to a huge swath of Nigerians who will be willing to travel in different directions next year, having experienced the leadership of the ruling party for eight years.

Of course, this promise has been criticized by members from the other side. For instance, Fani-Kayode in a reaction described the former Vice President as arrogant and delusional. He taunted his erstwhile boss as an unsuspectingly naked man running to clothe others.

The former Aviation Minister said: “The insufferable arrogance and sheer effrontery of this man is as repugnant as it is appalling. Do the Igbo need you to become President? You have been trying to be President for over 30 years and you have not been able to make it and now you are saying you will be the stepping stone for someone else.

“Just how deluded can you get? Your advisors have been so unfair to you! You are like a naked man running around with no clothes on and telling others that you are the stepping stone to getting them nice new clothes!”

READ ALSO:‘Your snub by Obasanjo shows that something is fundamentally wrong,’ Wike in veiled jibe at Atiku

This criticism, however harsh, is suggestive of the urgent need for the opposition to attend to its current crisis. One wonders the strategy Atiku is planning to use to win the election while five out of the states controlled by PDP are at loggerheads with him. So the question is, between Atiku’s promised to hand over the presidency to the South-East and reconciliation in PDP, which one is more important? The answer is not difficult.

Political analysts are of the view that Atiku needs to put his house in order before talking about helping others get to the presidency. Being someone who has run for presidency a couple of times and failed, Atiku is better advised to endeavour to placate the war ripping his party apart before even thinking about handing over to a south-eastern president. Only a president can talk about handing power to another person.

They opine that allowing the crisis in the party to fester would only continue to put his ambition of becoming the first democratic President of Nigeria from the north-east in jeopardy, hence the talk of handing over to another region may end up as wishful thinking.

Many have also suggested that Atiku is not one to be trusted to keep a promise, or work with others to birth a collective agreement based on fair-play, equity and the need to give everyone a sense of belonging in the Nigerian project. The argument is that, if he were, then he would not even be running for the presidency in 2023 in the first place.

In the quest to build a Nigeria that would give all a sense of belonging, it is understood that the political parties had fashioned out a system where the various political positions in their parties and government is shared and rotated to the six geo-political zones, through a north-south-based arrangement. However, Atiku has refused to honour this unwritten rule, as he is determined to be president, no matter what. With the north having had their share of the presidency for the last eight years under President Muhammadu Buhari, the expectation was for the next president to come from the southern part of the country.

Against expectations Atiku waved that aside and went on to grab the PDP ticket. Many see his promise to hand over to the south-east as a placatory move, knowing very well that the region, and indeed many Nigerians are unhappy with his decision to shun the zoning arrangement by his selfish course of action. A reason many see his promise as a mere political speech intended to sway the people of the region ahead of the 2023 general elections. For if indeed he had much love or respect for the south-east as he wants people to believe, then he would not have disrespected the zoning arrangement that should have facilitated the emergence of a president from southern Nigeria.

Analysts have also showcased the internal crisis within the PDP as a classic evidence which demonstrates Atiku’s disregard for the need to share positions based on zones or regions. They also argue that the crisis also reflects how Atiku does not keep to his words or promises. The group of five governors under the party’s platform who have continued to oppose Atiku’s quest for presidency insinuate that he is not to be trusted. Governor Wike in particular had said Atiku told him in private that Ayu would have to step down since the party’s presidential candidate and national chairman should not come from the same northern region. But Atiku has refused to support moves to make Ayu resign.

Atiku’s supporters have put forward various arguments as to why the zoning arrangement should be shelved for Atiku to have his way. But others have also asked if a man who harbors no regard for equity and fair play can be trusted to keep his words. If indeed he does win and becomes president, can the south-east still trust him to work for the emergence of a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction?

By Ambali Abdulkabeer

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