Heavy rainfall ahead as NiMet predicts up to 290 rainy days in Southern Nigeria for 2025

Nigeria’s southern coastal states are in for a long and wet year, according to the 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) on Monday.

The report forecasts that states like Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom will experience between 250 and 290 rainy days, the highest across the country.

This forecast marks a continuation of climate patterns driven by global and regional weather shifts, and it comes with implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and flood preparedness in vulnerable communities.

Professor Charles Anosike, NiMet’s Director-General, through the official release, said the southern coastal states will not only record the highest number of rainy days but also the heaviest rainfall totals, ranging from 2,700 mm to 3,010 mm for the year.

Further north, however, a stark contrast emerges.

In Nigeria’s northeastern and northwestern states, including Borno, Yobe, Sokoto, and Katsina, rainfall will be limited, with annual totals expected to fall below 685 mm, and rainy days projected between 110 and 150.

States in the central belt such as Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and the FCT are expected to record 150 to 200 rainy days, with rainfall ranging between 970 mm and 1,500 mm.

Meanwhile, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu will see between 200 and 250 rainy days.

The report also signals a mostly normal to below-normal rainfall pattern across Nigeria, compared to long-term averages. However, select areas, including Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and parts of the FCT, are projected to receive above-normal rainfall, raising concerns over potential flash floods and erosion.

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NiMet forecasts that the onset of rainfall will vary significantly across regions:

• Southern states such as Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo, Cross River, and Ebonyi can expect rains to begin between March and April.
• The central region will likely see rainfall between April and May.
• In the northern states like Sokoto, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, and Borno, the rains will arrive between early June and July.

Conversely, early rains are predicted in Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of the southwest. However, some states like Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara may experience delayed onset.

As for the end of the rainy season, cessation is expected to begin from October 6 in parts of Sokoto, Zamfara, and Katsina, moving gradually southwards until December 17, when the last showers are expected in coastal areas.

NiMet issued warnings about severe dry spells in parts of Oyo State, where towns like Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomosho, and Kajola may experience up to 15 consecutive dry days even after the rains have started.

Other regions, including Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, and Cross River, may face moderate dry spells of similar duration.

In the north, a severe dry spell of up to 21 days is projected between June and August, right in the middle of the growing season, posing a threat to agricultural productivity.

NiMet has advised government agencies, farmers, and the general public to prepare proactively, emphasizing the need for adaptive farming techniques, urban planning resilience, and early warning systems to mitigate possible climate-induced disasters.

The agency’s projections provide not just a weather outlook but a call to action. With over 80% of Nigeria’s agriculture rain-fed, shifts in rainfall patterns can significantly affect food security, public health, and economic stability.

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