ONDO 2020: Jegede trails Akeredolu in Ripples Nigeria poll

The Ondo State governorship election slated for October 10, 2020, may return Governor Rotimi Akeredolu to office, a Ripples Nigeria opinion poll on the election has indicated.

The online poll on the Ondo governorship election garnered 1,001, 508 views, with 16,837 votes cast.

Incumbent Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) got 8,331 votes representing 49.5 percent, while the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Eyitayo Jegede, received 7, 394 votes, representing 43.9 percent.

The candidate of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and incumbent Deputy Governor of the state, Agboola Ajayi came a distant third with 406 votes, representing 2.4 percent while the remaining 14 candidates got 706 votes, representing 4.2 percent.

Tagged, RIPPLES NIGERIA POLL: Who is your favourite to win the Ondo governorship election?, the survey was conducted using the Opinion Stage platform. It ran for a two-month period, beginning 31st July, 2020 with the cut-off date set as 2nd of October, 2020.

With almost a 6 percent lead by the APC candidate, there is significant probability that, though the electoral contest will be keen, Governor Akeredolu stands a good chance to defeat his PDP challenger again, making it a likely repeat performance of the 2016 election.

The projections also indicate that the Ondo gubernatorial election will again be a straight fight between the APC and the PDP.

In 2016, Governor Akeredolu polled a total of 224, 842 votes to defeat the PDP candidate, Jegede, who scored 150, 380 votes, while Chief Olusola Oke, then of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), polled 126, 889 votes.

The Numbers

As the electorate in Ondo State go to the polls on Saturday, October 10, below are some numbers that are vital.

– Number of Registered Voters 1,822,346
– Percentage of Registered voters to population…39%
– Number of PVCs collected…1,478,460
– Percentage of PVCs collection…81%
– Number of PVCs not collected…343,866
– Percentage of population eligible to vote (those who collected PVC)…31.6%
– Number of Polling Units…3 009
– Number of LGs prone to Violence…5
– Number of LGs with high incidence of voter inducement…6

CAUTION

 

The Ripples Nigeria Poll, it must be noted, makes no claims to being scientific but only an open-access survey.

It should also be noted that data mined from the survey platform, Opinion Stage, do not capture location of respondents. We cannot, therefore, confidently state that those who voted in the survey were all residents of Ondo state.

The poll, however, provides a glimpse into popular sentiments regarding the election direction.

DOUBTS OVER POLL INTEGRITY

Doubts over the integrity of the electoral process have always been rife in Nigeria, as citizens constantly suspect a pre-determined outcome for every contest.

However, the conduct of the Edo State governorship election on 19th September, 2020, and its handling by INEC, seem to have re-awakened the interest of Nigerians, with a gradual rebuilding of trust and faith in the ballot box.

INEC will be going to Saturday’s election with an opportunity to build on Edo election and ensure that Nigerians, once again, do not have reasons to doubt the integrity of elections.

The above notwithstanding, doubts remain as many are quick to insist that the Edo scenario was a totally different game, with multiple factors working together to produce its eventual, for which INEC has received commendations.

FEAR OF VIOLENCE

The fear of violence in Saturday’s election is real, as the two dominant parties in the governorship race, PDP and APC, have remained at each others throats in the count down to the election.

There have been incidences of violence, leading to death, injuries and destruction of property, with the two dominant parties being indicted in the violence.

From happenings during the electioneering campaigns, five local government areas have been identified as potential flashpoints during the election. They are:

Akure South
Akoko South East
Idanre
Owo
Akoko South West

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

Social Media Measurements

The Ripples Nigeria Poll on Ondo election reached 66, 114 people on Facebook, with 15,122 engagements. It attracted 7,733 likes, comments and shares and had 7,389 post clicks.

Both Governor Akeredolu and Eyitayo Jegede had a fair share of the engagements in their favour, while the ZLP candidate, Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi, had more of the negative trolls, on account of his double defection, first from APC to PDP, and PDP to ZLP.

The comments may, however, not translate to actual votes on election day as it has been proven over time that many commentators on social media hardly go beyond that, failing to vote in elections.

Though the poll predicts a slim 6% victory for incumbent Governor Akeredolu, other extraneous factors may combine to influence final outcomes.

Federal Might

With enormous power concentrated in the presidency due to the unique structure of our federalism, it has always been believed that the party controlling the centre can always dictate what happens during elections.

However, the outcome of Edo State gubernatorial election may act to gradually dis-abuse the minds of Nigerians on how very influential institutions of state could negatively impact elections in the country.

With institutions like the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the military, Department of State Services (DSS), the Police and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), staying true to their constitutional roles without bias, fear of the proverbial federal might may not arise.

It is, however, unclear if President Muhammadu Buhari, who is the leader of the APC, would sustain the non-interference posture he maintained in the Edo election, especially with the defeat suffered by his party.

This is even more so as the President, in the course of last week, wrote to the Senate to approve over N4 billion for Ondo State government as a refund for projects executed on behalf of the federal government. For ardent critics, the refund, coming so close to the election, is designed to confer undue advantage on Governor Akeredolu and his party.

Incumbency

All the indices and factors on ground seem to be working for Governor Akeredolu, as he currently holds the power of incumbency in the state. The advantage leaves him with access to State resources. Same can be deployed in his favour, especially in a process where vote buying has taken deep root.

A report by YIAGA Africa identified 6 local government areas – Akoko South West, Akure South, Akoko South East, Akoko North West, Ifedore and Odigbo, as places with very high concentration of voters inducement with cash, food and materials ahead of the election.

Rigging

Rigging or manipulation of the electoral process, a major feature in electoral contests in Nigeria, may just be another factor that will further determine the outcome of the election.

It is common place to see leading parties in any election in the country pointing accusing fingers at each other, but the reality is that the party which is able to out-rig and or out-manipulate the other usually carries the day.

Voter Apathy/Disenfranchisement

Just as in the Edo election, the global COVID-19 pandemic may impact negatively on the turnout of voters on Saturday, October 10. This will in turn affect the outcome of the election.

Though Nigeria has been witnessing dwindling numbers in new positives cases, the protocols put in place by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) as regards public gatherings and social distancing may affect large turnout of voters.

As impressive as the number of PVC collection in Ondo State may be (81%), it is still worrisome that 343,866 registered voters would not be able to exercise their franchise because of non-collection of PVCs.

Our Verdict

The Ripples Nigeria poll predicts a win for Governor Akeredolu in the October 10 gubernatorial election.

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