Preview: #EDO 2016 – How the pendulum may swing

On Wednesday, the people of Edo State will go to the polls to elect a successor for outgoing Governor Adams Oshiomhole,  who is rounding off his second term in office.The stakes are high as the political parties with candidates for the election have been working round the clock to woo voters in the state.

Though the contest has been made to appear like a straight fight between the two leading parties in the state, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), there are 17 other political parties with candidates for the election, with the ability to spring surprises. The dark horses are the candidates of the Progressive People’s Party ((PPA),Thomas Sadoh, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Osaro Onaiwu and Labour Party (LP), Amos Areloegbe.

The APC candidate, Godwin Obaseki, had on Thursday, in what appeared to be an ambitious prediction of how Edolites are going to vote, boasted that he would win the poll by a whopping 75 percent.

Obaseki said: “From all the feelers we are getting from across the state, the indications are that we will win by 75 per cent. That is what the Gallup poll I monitored last night indicated. Particularly in Edo-South, things have improved quite significantly from the last poll that we received.

“Edo-Central has been very interesting…Edo-North is essentially open to us, apart from a few units in Akoko-Edo and one unit in Owan-East.”

One thing Obaseki’s statement revealed is that, despite APC, being the ruling party in the state, two of the senatorial districts of the state actually remain strongholds of the opposition PDP, while it is stronger only in the Edo North senatorial district.

From the field survey carried out by Ripples Nigeria, and from former voting patterns in the state, Ripples Nigeria presents to you how the electorate in Edo may vote on Wednesday, 28 September.

Edo North

Edo North is the senatorial district of incumbent Governor Adams Oshiomhole, who is also the leader of the party in the state.

The deputy governorship candidate of the APC also hails from Edo North and as such, the APC is expected to have an upper hand here, though it is also expected to be the major battleground for both the PDP and the APC, as a number of PDP bigwigs, including the state chairman of the PDP, Chief Dan Orbih hails from here.

For Etsako West, Oshiomhole’s local government, the APC is expected to have an edge with nothing less than 60 to 70 percent win while Etsako East will certainly be a battleground for both parties.  This is because of recent happenings in the LG, including intra party wrangling that may affect the fortunes of APC at the polls. Ripples Nigeria survey shows that the LG may likely go the way of PDP, though the margin may be small.

For Etsako Central, Owan-West and Akoko-Edo, the PDP is expected to have a good outing. Etsako Central is the home LG of Dan Orbih, the state PDP chairman  and former Chief of Staff to President Goodluck Jonathan,  Matthew Ogiadhome, while Akoko-Edo has traditionally being a PDP stronghold.

However, Owan-East is too close to call as both parties are expected to sweat it out on the field. It is certainly going to be a major battleground on Wednesday.

Edo Central

Traditionally, Edo Central has always been the stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, if things go well, it is expected to remain so.

According to Ripples Nigeria sources in the senatorial district, the PDP is expecting nothing less than 80 percent victory margin from the area. With the likes of Chief Tony Anenih, the deputy governorship candidate, John Yakubu, a former minister, Mike Onenomen and the Senator representing the area, a PDP member, the PDP may just coast to victory here.

Another factor that may swing victory for PDP in the senatorial district is the alleged neglect of the Ambrose Ali University, Ekpoma, in favour of the newly established Edo State University, Iyahmo, Oshiomhole’s home town.

Read also: EDO 2016: PDP, APC, APGA argue over who is really plotting to rig

Edo South

Though it is widely believed that Edo South, the most populous in terms of voting population of the three senatorial districts, is another PDP stronghold, current realities may make the area another battleground on Wednesday.

The senatorial district is home to the two leading candidates in the election. While the PDP candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu hails from Orhiowon, the APC candidate, Godwin Obaseki hails from Oredo.

Another factor that may contribute to fierceness of the competition in the Senatorial district is the fact that the outgoing administration concentrated most of its infrastructural development in Benin City and, in doing so, left some sour experience in the psyche of the populace, especially petty traders and artisans.

From Orhiowon, Ize-Iyamu’s LG, the PDP will certainly have the upper hand as the people of the area are on the verge of producing the governor of the state for the first time, while Oredo may tilt towards the APC, cashing on Obaseki’s indigenship of the area. What may however create problems for APC is the alleged imposition of heavy taxation and levies on residents of Benin city.

Ikpoba-Ohka is too close to call and will be expected to go 50-50 for both APC and PDP. Ikpoba-Ohka is a reverine area and as such, difficult to monitor.

For Uhumwonde, it will be a battle to finish as the contest is expected to go either way on a 55-45 margin basis while Ovia North and Ovia south are expected to go the way of PDP, with a wide margin.

All said, the very late call by Ahmed Bola Tinubu for the sack of John Odigie-Oyegun, National Chairman of APC who hails from Edo, has done much more to weaken the fabrics of the party, create doubts and engender loss of confidence. The party is apparently in disarray, and this may leave Oyegun with a loss even in his own LG, Oredo.

The permutations favour PDP and many political pundits are quick to tip them to win the polls by a respectable margin if the election to be conducted on Wednesday by INEC is free, fair and credible.

By Timothy Enietan-Matthews….

 

 

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