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RipplesMetrics: Aspirants need 7.69% delegates votes to stand a chance in APC presidential primary



Today, Tuesday June 7 is the day for the Presidential Primaries of the All-Progressives Congress (APC).

About 2,340 party delegates from the 774 local government areas in the country and area councils in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) will determine who will be the party’s presidential flagbearer for the 2023 elections.

Breakdown shows that Northern Nigeria has about 1,257 delegates and Southern Nigeria has a total of 1,068 delegates.

Buhari’s seeming decision to throw the race open cleared all doubts about where he stands on the choice of a presidential candidate for the governing party, having declared before the party’s 13 northern state governors that he had “no preferred candidate” and has “anointed no one.”

The APC presidential hopefuls

Thirteen names were cleared by the APC screening committee to vie for the party’s presidential ticket.

The names include Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Bola Tinubu, Abubakar Badaru, Akpabio Godswill, Amaechi Chibuike Rotimi, Amosun Ibikunle, Bello Yahaya, Fayemi Kayode, Jack -Rich Tein, Lawan, Ahmed, Nwajiuba Chukwuemeka, Onu Christopher and Umahi Nweze David.

What the law says

The adhoc delegates are the only ones empowered to vote in the party’s primaries as Statutory delegates comprising of the President, Vice President, House of Assembly members were exempted from the exercise by the newly amended electoral act.

The Electoral Act 2022 does not establish or mention a role for Statutory delegates.

This issue in the electoral act has generated a lot of controversy as lawmakers are currently battling to correct that section of the act.

Read also: RipplesMetrics: Women lead, as data show INEC is 29.4m short on target voters for 2023 elections

The Section 84 (8) of the act states that “A political party that adopts the system of indirect primaries for the choice of its candidate shall clearly outline in its constitution and rules the procedure for the democratic election of delegates to vote at the convention, congress or meeting.”

Breakdown of delegates by zone

South East —288
South West —411
South South —359
North West —558
North Central —363
North East —336

RipplesMetrics: Aspirants need 7.69% delegates votes to stand a chance in APC presidential primary

What the numbers say about the possible winners

With 2,340 delegates and 13 aspirants, this comes to equal votes of 180 each or 7.69 percent of the total votes.

To stand a chance, the 13 aspirants will have to first seek to secure at least 180 of the delegates votes to stand a chance and then look forward in adding numbers from other delegates.

It sure looks to be a mouthwatering contest to finish and it will be interesting to see who eventually emerge winner.

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