Ripples Metrics
RipplesMetrics… Insecurity Index: Gombe, Kano, Ondo are safest states in Nigeria for H1’24
In a speech in New Year on the 1st of January 2024, President Bola Tinubu boasted to have improved the lingering insecurity in the country.
He said, “Since our administration took over the mantle of office, security has improved. Silently, we have worked to free captives from abductors. While we can’t beat our chest yet that we have solved all the security problems, we are working hard to ensure that we all have peace of mind in our homes, places of work and on the roads.”
The president hinged his speech on the premise of his promises when he was inaugurated into office on May 29, 2023, where he said that security would be one of his top priorities during his administration.
He said, “Security shall be the top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence.
“To effectively tackle this menace, we shall reform both our security doctrine and its architecture. We shall invest more in our security personnel, and this means more than an increase in number. We shall provide better training, equipment, pay, and firepower,” he added.
However, Ripples Metrics extracted data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) and discovered that insecurity crises have been consistent during the first six months of 2024, as against what the president promised.
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Findings from our data showed that a total number of 5,124 people were killed in various violent attacks that were carried out by terrorist groups, bandits and other unknown or armed individuals between January to June 2024. These death rates were culled from 115 reported incidences of insecurity within the first half of the year.
This means that an average of 28 people were killed daily due to persistent insecurity attacks within the country in the first six months of this year. Ripples Metrics also observed that the total death rate is more than half of the total death rate recorded in 2023.
Breaking it down by months, in January, the total number of deaths recorded was 769. In February and March, 752 people and 833 people were reported to have been killed. For April, May and June, the total death rate recorded 1,132 deaths, 958 deaths and 680 deaths respectively.
How the deaths occurred across states
From the analysed data, the states with the highest death rates were Borno State with 1,021 people killed within the period under review. It was followed by Zamfara, Katsina, and Kaduna states with 875, 643 and 434 deaths respectively in 2023.
The state with the lowest death rate was Gombe State, recording no deaths within the first six months. This made it the safest state to live in within the first half of the month. It was followed by Kano, Ondo and Jigawa states recording 2, 4 and 4 deaths respectively.
When broken down by geopolitical zone, states in the North-Central reported 976 deaths, the North-East reported 1,187 deaths, and the North-West region had 2,335 deaths.
For the Southern region, the South-East recorded 258 deaths, the South-South recorded 234 deaths, and the South-West lost 134 people to attacks.
By: James Odunayo
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