The political climate is shifting. Actors are moving but you cannot just help but marvel at the timing. It is as if they all have an early warning signal that the rest of us are not aware of. Once the alarm strikes they start moving, forging alliances, building fences, destroying set walls and generally preparing themselves for the upcoming battle.
So, former President Olusegun Obasanjo suddenly makes a trip to Kaduna. In visiting El-Rufai, he makes some very positive comments on the governor which runs against his position as regards the person and suitability of this character for leadership. While we struggle to comprehend this, we begin to see critical articles published by Tinubu’s The Nation on policies of the Federal Government.
These articles are quite instructive, especially if you pull in the sack of Muiz Banire from AMCON and the refusal of the Federal Government in renewing the tenure of Tax Czar, Fowler. These two moves are generally seen as blow to the perceived presidential ambition of Tinubu,making the position of The Nation much more presumptive.
Former Governor Orji Kalu goes to jail after twelve years of trial. His position in delivering the South East remains open for further conjecture but his removal from the scene shows his light weight in the expected configuration leading to the coming elections.
Like earlier mentioned, movements have begun to take shape and decisions on who stands for what is beginning to be ascertained. Who are the leading lights just yet?
Tinubu is a safe bet, but will he get it? I doubt. He is too divisive and vulnerable. He stands a strong chance if he eventually declares with the support of Buhari’s presidency. Hence his latter birthday message which lateness had begun to make some analysts worried.
El -Rufai, although his candidacy would go against the status quo in terms of rotation, may put up a good fight. He is dogged, shrewd player and ready to make compromises, hence the visit of the elder statesmen to his enclave.
I still do not see any other serious candidate in the horizon but then again it is still too early to project.
2023 promises to be quite interesting because I see it as a battle within the status quo and possible emergence of a dark horse that would most likely blind side the system.
By Joseph Edgar…