We get into the real world with a viral strategy in sports betting and particularly in France, the strategies on the +1.5 goal!
Around 76% of European matches end with +1.5, but it’s hard to find anything interesting if you look at the odds. Here, the first job will be to analyze many matches, but always with one objective: find values!
A value bet according to Topbets is when your calculation predicts more chances of success than the bookmaker’s odds.
Little reminder. To find the odds probability, you need to do this calculation:1/odds x 100
Example with odds of 1.50: 1 / 1.50 x 100 = 66.66
An odds of 1.50, therefore, have, according to bookmakers, a probability of about 67% of passing (two out of three chances).
It’s up to you to find bets that you think have more than two out of three chances of winning.
To find good values with the +1.5 goals, you will have to analyze many matches and look for the little nuggets forgotten by the bookmakers. We will now be able to look at the Over Under analysis techniques.
The first point to analyze is the average number of goals that each team scores and concedes. Should we avoid an Over on teams that score very few goals? Not always! This is sometimes where you find value.
Some teams, when they meet, tend to “pair up” to score more than against other opponents. On the contrary, some other “pairs” score less. For me, this is secondary and has little importance. The history of the last confrontations is challenging to understand when you no longer have all the elements in mind, especially each meeting’s stakes.
For a long time, Atletico closed the game when playing away. It was the typical team to bet on Under.
Conversely, Atalanta, which has a very offensive game, made it possible to make good Over when the bookmakers had not yet understood its offensive game’s power and its defensive shortcomings.
The stake is a crucial point to control the Over and Under. We do not play the same way in the semi-finals of a cup match or during a championship match, or even in a Champions League return match.
For example, in the first leg of the UCL, the home team will do everything not to concede goals. But is this a team that knows how to defend? And, even more, does it know how to attack against? The stake of the meeting is, therefore, the key element to appreciate.
Here, we arrive at something more refined and less noticeable. As a football fan, we vibrate for the game! More than that, we want to see goals in the game we are watching.
Naturally, we tend to distort our analyzes with this data: we want goals! Be careful when you analyze. To analyze, put aside your passion for football and your desire to see goals in each match.
Another point not to be overlooked. When a very technical team is playing on a snow-covered lawn, their play style will not be able to be expressed at best. Attacks will be rarer and arguably less lethal. A bad pitch is never a good place to see goals.
Test, Over and Over Again!
There are no secrets. To be successful, you have to try again and again. The best advice I can give you: test a lot of bets with different ways of analyzing! And take notes to find your way around.
After 200 bets, you will have an idea of the results of your strategy. You don’t have to bet them all. On the contrary, a good strategy works blank, without betting, but by being serious. Take your time.
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