Things may soon fall apart: Does Saraki hold the key?

By Joseph Edgar…

The pressure on the ruling party is palpable. The pressure is leading to all sort of coalescing in camps and realignment of forces and we can do nothing but to watch and look at how elders are beginning to dance naked in the public square.

The recent announcement by President Muhammadu Buhari against tenure elongation of principal officers of his party, although legally correct, is seen as a major blow to the forces that looked to have controlling power in the party. This position, some analysts have seen as a major victory for the party leader who has been in a long running battle with the party chairman, John Oyegun. A battle the leader was looking to have lost with the continuous losses he has suffered in all skirmishes since they came into power.

We have witnessed how his ego was bruised and tarnished when the Senate President emerged against his firm opposition and not quite long after, a Senator within his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and loyal to other camps threatened to beat up his wife, and then the seemingly lowly Minister of State for petroleum called him out leading to the leader publicly calling for his removal which off course did not happen.

All these led to him suffering a bone crushing defeat at the Ondo state elections which saw Akeredolu emerge as the candidate of the party apparatchik as against the Asiwaju’s preferred candidate.

However, despite all these ‘little losses’, the Asiwaju is looking like he is going to win where it matters most. The President’s position on tenure extension has dealt a major blow to the party leadership who have, amongst others, failed to organise a party conference in the last three years. This is seen as the President aligning with the Asiwaju who has not wasted time in congratulating the President for his boldness and clear mindedness. My words.

The effects may have begun to reverberate as you can see that the Senate President and the party chairman were conspicuously absent at the event organised to honour the party leader on his birthday. This has been seen as a kind of show of resentment at the position taken by the President, although there could be other reasons that could be used to explain their absence.

The lines are beginning to emerge and the crack in the wall is getting conspicuously wider. If we really see a division with the party chairman and the Senate President on one side and the President and the party leader on the other side, then one can safely say that this would most likely be the end of the APC as we see it today.

Let me say why. The Senate President is not a little politician. His influence and political acumen is legendary. Young and nubile, he has a large support base nationwide as a result of his firm control of Senators who would invariably spread his influence across board. He would be taking with him the party leadership who are in themselves grounded. This would lead to a powerful block that would be eagerly courted by other elements outside of the APC. This would be the new PDP all over again.

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On the other side, we have the famed federal might but wielded by a leader who is lacking in political sagacity and hobbled by a deemed poor performance in government. He is surrounded by kinsmen and journey men who have shown a remarkable vision for self-aggrandisement thereby throwing a deadly blow on the Presidents integrity. Whether they can sway popular votes with a weakened party structure is something I am waiting to see.

The Asiwaju is not the Asiwaju of 2015. We are seeing an Asiwaju that you can say really only has Lagos in his pockets and may be Ogun because of the closeness of the governor to the President. The south west is not what it used to be. Ondo and Ekiti are out of his influence and Osun, Aregbesola has done every thing within his powers to strengthen the opposition with his funny approach to governance.

So, how does APC now stand in the face of a PDP which is apologising to Nigerians as a first step towards redemption and a slowly but surely emergence of a third wheel championed by such legendary leaders like OBJ and maybe Danjuma who have both dealth massive blows at the government in recent times?

Do you see the two sides coming back together? Yes I do, simply because the politics of self-interest will always rule at the end of the day. Any attempt to continue with this hostility will weaken party structure and if not carefully handled will give room for loss in the elections which in everybody’s mind set would be disastrous.

I am seeing Oyegun being thrown under the bus, I’m seeing a handshake between Tinubu and Saraki for the sole purposes of 2019. I am seeing Osinbajo coming back home to resume at his legal career losing out in the negations that may have already commenced. I am seeing Saraki moving much more purposefully into driving position, leveraging on his contacts and political capital to displace the Asiwaju, this time around as the king maker while positioning himself as a possible consensus candidate.

I am seeing Amaechi also being pushed to the background because he would not deliver his region. With Wike, he has a tall order and with Ibori back on the field, Delta is a no go and with Akpabio in Akwa Ibom the South South is off limits. Amaechi is a goner, this I will say emphatically.

If you ask me, I will say this is Saraki’s game to lose. He will hold the key to Buhari’s future and not the Asiwaju. Mark my words. Saraki holds the key.

 

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