Who Moved My Cheese? —COVID-19

‘’Life is no straight and easy corridor along,

Which we travel free and unhampered,

But a maze of passage,

through which we must seek our way,

lost and confused, now and again
checked in a blind alley

But always, if we have Faith

God will open a door for us,

not perhaps one that we ourselves,

would ever have thought of,

but one that will ultimately

prove good for us’’

—A .J. Cronin

HEY, the world just tilted!

*Here come the Change we can’t ignore- all of us: Government, Business and Religious Organisations, individuals, Intelligence Community and International Agencies, the 1% standing on top of the pyramid, the 15% Elite hanging in the middle and the 84% sitting at the bottom of the pyramid- we are all in. How deep, we may not know now, because it is still Morning on the Creation Day of a New Dawn*.

*Life sure is turning out differently: in the early hours of January 1st 2020, for instance, when we all chorused ‘’Happy New Year, Happy New Decade’’- this wasn’t on anyone’s horizons. Fortunes rise and fall, civilisation emerges and disappears, empires come and go, and yesterday Colony is now today’s Colonial Master*.

*Like it or leave it, each country, each organisation, has to figure out how to re-position itself in light of the emerging shift. Sitting like the proverbial pigeon with eyes closed hoping the cat won’t see it, or rather, awaiting United Nations and World Bank for bail out, will lead to consequential disappointment. It is equally unwise to choose to go forward using the rear-view mirror of 2008/2016 crisis as a guide: we are dealing with once-in-a-century-seismic shift*!

*Human beings hardly want to change when things change, when BIG CHANGE happens, such as the one we are witnessing, people find it difficult to think differently. The tilt is, on one and, providing opportunities of a lifetime, and on the other hand, it represents an existential threat*.

*The 1998 Dr Spencer Johnson’s classic- ‘’Who Moved My Cheese’’ graphically captures the Nigeria dilemma within the context of the on-going global crises. It is a parable of four characters (Sniff, Scurry, Hem and Haw) who live in a maze and look for Cheese for nourishment and happiness. The four characters went through the maze looking for Cheese which they eventually discovered in large quantity at Cheese Station C after a long, strenuous search. The Cheese brought them fulfilment, confidence and high level of comfort. One day they got to the Cheese Station C only to discover the Cheese are no longer there. The Station C has become CheeseLess, to their surprise. Both Sniff and Scurry, on discovering this reality decided to change without over analysing the situation. They rolled up their sleeves, began to run through the maze, taking a new direction, new approach, but with greater determination in search of a new Cheese Station, better, bigger, sweeter Cheese. Which they got eventually*.

*Meanwhile, Hem and Haw, keep looking at the same Cheese Station C to see if the cheese was really gone. Hem and Haw, having gotten used to easy Cheese at Station C, cannot imagine a life without the Station C Cheese. They kept digging the wall of Station C looking for Cheese at the same location where it used to be. Hem and Haw were full of activities without productivity*.

*The lessons in Dr Spenser’s parable are: One, if you do not change you become Extinct. Two, The more important your Cheese is to you, the more you want to hold on to it. Three, Smell the Cheese Often, So you Know When it is getting Old. Four, Movement in a new direction helps you find new Cheese. Five, when you move beyond your fear, you feel free. Six, the quicker you let go of old cheese, the sooner you find new Cheese. Seven, It is safer to search in a Maze than remain in a CheeseLess situation. Eight, old Belief do not lead you to New Cheese. Nine, noticing small changes early helps you adapt to the bigger changes that are to come. Ten, thinking strategically requires you to provide honest answers to these two questions: what to let go and what do you need to move on to*?

*Nigeria’s Cheese is OIL. If you say No Oil, No Nigeria- you are not far from the truth. At least in the short term, because in the long run, since nature abhors a vacuum, we have to learn how to survive in an ‘’OiLLess’’ economy*!

*Our Cheese has been moved. The movement started not even yesterday, it started long before the current global Pandemic- no thanks to climate change, massive breakthrough in renewable energy and innovations in electric cars. Expectedly, the global lockdown of factories in Italy, Germany, China, USA and worldwide crashed the oil price to a level we have not seen in 18 years. ‘’ OIL DIED’’, says the President of one of the OPEC countries. But Nigeria and 18 other OPEC countries (out of 24 +1) which are least prepared for the death of King Oil after a long protracted sickness (caused by the above variables) cannot allow KING- Oil to just go like that. Those 18 countries would rather move THE KING to ICU and put him on the most powerful Life Support Machine money can buy with a view to keeping him alive and milking whatever is left of its nutrients and hoping with prayers that someday the King Oil will spring back to consciousness, to life, to continue its reign the way it has done these past 50 years*.

*Smart Oil producing Nations like Saudi, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar believe the KING is going to go sooner than expected, so they already crowned a new KING (Hospitality and Tourism for UAE) or grooming the King’s beloved cousin (Gas, Qatar)*
*In the parable above, Nigeria resembles Hem and Haw in character and behaviour, while Saudi Arabia and UAE resemble Sniff and Scurry*.

Read also: Covid–19, leadership and the presidency

When stone became useless as the ancient way of generating energy, it was not due to shortage of stone but a shift in sources of energy. When coal lost its number one position to fossil fuel as energy source- it was not because the world ran out of coal. Now that Oil is regarded as less valueable than water, it is imperative we put our thinking cap on and face the consequences of paying lip services to economic diversification. Nigeria shall pay the price of indecision, of myopic thinking and gross lack of farsightedness.

*From January 2020, globally, the demand of oil has dropped by 70 %( 10.1 mbd and may rise to 20mbd from May according to International Energy Agency) Oil price is sliding towards $20-$25 per barrel- way below Nigeria’s production cost price of $30/b*.

*As I write, pen-in-hand, in faraway Texas, USA, the President/ CEO of Whiting Petroleum Corporation just announced he was filling for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. According to Bradley Holy ‘’ The severe deterioration oil and gas prices driven by uncertainty around duration of the Saudi/Russia oil price war and the COVID-19 Pandemic is the reason for our collapse*’’

*Meanwhile, due to its inability to sell its Shale oil which needs a price around $40/b to turn a profit, US is planning to use only crude from US for the next 60-90 days in order to protect what it calls ‘’ national security’*.

*In the absence of a consensus among the 24 OPEC + members on an output reduction quota, Saudi Arabia off loaded about 18 million barrels of oil in one day to the market this week as against its 7 million barrel per day quota. According to Rystad Energy, global investments in production is expected to fall by over $100 billion or 17% below last year in 2020. The dog-eat-dog competition among Russia, Saudi Arabia and USA has left OPEC impotent. Saudi’s unilateralism has not helped matters. The grapevine has it that Saudi is already betting its future on a decarbonised economy, therefore it is bent on emptying its oil from the ground as quick as possible. Of all the 24 + OPEC members, only Kuwait, UAE and Saudi can withstand a long period of price violence in the oil sector because the three countries have full insurance policies through their Sovereign Wealth Funds*.

*In the coming weeks, the decisions taking on oil by Saudi’s MBA, Russia Putin and America’s Trump, will, to a considerable extent, determine the future of Nigeria state. Already fragile, a prolong oil price war among the three Oil Kings will move some of the oil dependent States to join the League table of Failed States like Venezuela and Libya*.

*UNDERSTANDING THE TIMES LIKE THE ISSACHARANS.*

*The world before yesterday, the standard opinion was that the transfer of technology and Managerial know-how, Capital, Aid and grants were from West to East. But COVID-19 has changed all that. Whichever way you slice through the complexities, volatility and uncertainties of these times, four new realities are sacrosanct*.

*The world is in an irreversible transition to a greater lop-sidedness with regards to distribution of opportunities and wealth. The road ahead is that of huge disequilibrium full of twist and turns. China has emerged from this global Pandemic with his ‘’manufacturing weaponry ‘’ intact- indeed it has added to it. Jobs and wealth will flow more to China at the detriment of Africa and Nigeria. Except Nigeria and Africa wake up, and timely, too- they may lose out completely in this Century*.

*Two, coming to terms with the world as it is emerging: economic power rather than Military power will determine the political influence a country wields in the New World Order. If America ‘’ carry’’ second position (2nd) in this two-way street fight with China, then most of those Western Values ( democracy, Freedom of Speech, Liberalism etc) will enter into a Winter season and less countries will be beholden to USA in the years ahead*.

*Three, a season of hyper Nationalism, Trade Protectionism beacon. The Western Nations rose to unmatched prosperity by creating and merchandising Globalisation. If they get beaten in their game by China, then they will work to undermine Free Trade. Trump already began this with his America First mantra, Germany in the midst of this crisis has said it will not allow foreign interests to acquire the shares of those Germany companies in distress. China and India already have a policy of not allowing Foreign Direct Investment into crutical sectors of their economy except their citizens have controlling shares*.

*Finally, Companies are going to be competing against countries and not just against other companies. Huawei , China Bank, Aramco Oil, etc are all companies+ Countries. This will become the new normal. Such companies will scale up faster and have untold access to funding. Just yesterday April 1st, April, the 3rd and 4th biggest Telecom companies in the US merged in a $26.5 Billion deal getting ready to compete with Huawei on 5G*.

Four weeks ago, President Trump also muted the idea of Ericsson and Samsung and other US Telco coming together to form a strong Alliance to enable the West regain the lost ground on 5G.

*What does all this add up to for Nigeria*?

*The era of unbridled globalisation is gone. Every country has to fight for its survival plus self enlightened interest We must protect our national jobs and wealth and the future generations. For instance when Dangote Refinery starts operation, he is not going to be competing with other oil companies alone, he will be up against strong international interests in the oil sector who are bound to lose out if Nigeria achieves self sufficiency in petroleum products. With the way MBA, the Saudi Prince, threw the 23 OPEC countries under the BUS in the last two weeks by opening the Saudi Oil tap, it calls for a serious rethink if our OPEC membership is justified going forward.

Nigeria government must come up with strong policy to protect Dangote Refinery and all other Nigerians investors in the Oil sector. Ditto Adenuga in Telcom. This is common sense.

*Furthermore, since Nigeria’s Cheese has been moved, we need to look for New Cheese. Our best New Cheeses are ICT and Agriculture. These two sectors can absorb comfortably the 30 million unemployed youths on the streets who are seriously hurting now under the yoke of the lockdown. Each time I go to NYSC to speak to Corp members on Entrepreneurship- I see their frustration and pains: those CBN Policies designed to help NYSC are mostly beyond their reach due to the insurmountable conditionality attached*. *Yet the way forward is still through Small and Medium scale businesses* .*Yes, the youth want to create businesses and they can see the ‘’GOAT’’ (CBN intervention package)*. But they cannot touch the Goat- not to talk of having it as soup. Why? The ROPE on the Goat’s neck tied by CBN experts (who have little understanding on how Starts-Up work) has rendered the Goat unfit for their need*. In the US, according to Bureau of Labour Statics in 2017, 415,226 Starts-Up were created adding additional 1.7 million jobs to the economy*.

*We need to unpack the CBN interventions polices to analyse why the success rate is small*. *Recalibrate them to make it achieves it’s goal*. *We need to consciously create about 500,000 Starts-Up in ICT, Agriculture, Music, Entertainment and* *Fashion yearly in order to create 3,000,000 jobs annually so that in the next 10 years, we would have created 30 million jobs through deliberate strategies that work, using the*

* CBN intervention vehicle*.* CBN needs to engage the services of real entrepreneurs, I.e*. *those who have built businesses from scratch without government contracts and providing jobs for 500+ staff*. *This Group will study how Israel become* *the leading start-ups Nation and come up with implantable road map on What Works. Meanwhile, CBN should ensure the* *COVID-19 stimulus package of single digit of 5% interest rate and one year moratorium as announced is implemented by the Commercial banks this month*.

*No race should go into slavery twice*. *The Jewish people that went multiple times are exception and not the rule and they have vowed NEVER AGAIN ( this why they have built the 5th strongest Military in the world and one of the global top 10 innovative economy)* .

*If we care for the future generations, and we desire to prevent second slavery for the Black Race, this time around slavery* *in the Far East, where free speech is as scarce as diamond*: *I say to CBN – CUT THE ROPE ON THE GOAT NECK SO THAT* *SMEs CAN EMBRACE IT*.

*True, 50% of the money will go bad, but you only need 10% successful businesses to repay 100%*. *The remaining 40% is PROFIT*!

*Sometimes, Things Change and They are Never the Same Again. This looks like one of those times*.

*Therefore, let us seize the moment*.

*LETS STOP PLAYING, OR LET’S GET SERIOUS*

By Tim Akano…

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