ANALYSIS: Now that alliance is forclosed, what happens in Lagos guber race?

As gubernatorial election and House of Assembly elections take place in different states of the Federation tomorrow (Saturday), special attention has been paid to how the battle will take shape in Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre -Lagos State. The attention is not surprising; it is the inevitable aftermath of what happened in the state during February 25 presidential election.

The fact that Labour Party’s Peter Obi put up an incredible performance in the state, a feat considered unarguably historic, has unsettled the so-called political environment which the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) had dominated, and seemingly taken for granted over for years.

Immediately after the outcome of the presidential election, political analysts were united in the opinion that the victory of Bola Ahmed Tinubu was made easier by the disastrous failure of the opposition parties to unite. With the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) needlessly broken into different parts ahead of the poll, one could only imagine the opportunity such would give to the ruling party. Judging from this fatal error which had been conveniently linked to the arrogance of the PDP, Nigerians have raised the opinions that PDP and Labour Party, being the strongest opposition, would have to find a way of marrying their strategies if they hope to cause upset in states controlled by the ruling party in tomorrow’s election.

In Lagos, the APC stronghold in the South-West, the possibility of alliance taking place between the two parties must have hit the rocks. In one of his interviews earlier this month, the Labour Party governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, raised the hopes of many people as he confirmed talks of alliance with the “owners of PDP” in the state. He insisted the discussion was necessary to forge a common front against the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the election.

Rhodes-Vivour said: “We are talking to the owners of the structure of PDP. In the coming days, we will align with them to ensure that we take Lagos to the next level. People that are behind this movement are not moved by money; they are voting for hope, moved by the hope of a new Lagos and they are going to come out more than before. People have seen how one man in his interest rubbished the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) process; so we are ready to fight.

“I have seen the pains of Lagos. We know for a fact that the current government will not reduce unemployment, but our government will make the youths productive members of the society. We are going to give them bright Lagos”.

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However, the possibility of the alliance was eroded when his counterpart in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Adediran Olajide Azeez aka Jandor, went to the opposite of the edge. Jandor during a Channels Television interview harped on the conditions for such to happen while citing the candidacy case around the Labour Party standard bearer still pending in court. Although he was subtly optimistic of the suggested collaboration, the PDP standard bearer insisted his party could not afford to sit on a keg of gunpowder.

He noted: “We came ourselves to look at the issue and say, ‘Within us, what do we want to do? Do we want to put an end to a dynasty that has held us by the jugular for over two decades? Where do we go from here?’

“We now discovered that the Labour Party candidate still has a case on his candidacy which is currently at the Supreme Court, we looked at it again that the Labour Party candidate also has an issue with Section 77 of the Electoral Act, which says if you’re leaving a particular party to another one, you must have been there, at least, for one month, that is, the party register would have been with INEC 30 days before that party primary.

“But knowing full well who we’re dealing with; we know the kind of character we’re dealing with, we know what can happen – there’s no point sitting on a keg of gunpowder.

“So, for us, we want an alliance; we don’t have any issue with it. But we must put our best foot forward. We must make sure that we go into this election without any snag whatsoever”, he added.

Simple meaning from the above tilts towards the inability of both parties to find a common ground and learn from the February 25 error which put them behind the ruling APC. For many, the emergence of Tinubu as the President-elect has invigorated the ruling party in Lagos to rework its strategies and retain control of the space. Others believe that the ‘Obi factor’ which had resulted in the victory of Labour Party in the state during the last election could still come handy tomorrow.

As it stands now, Labour Party seems to have garnered more support in the state than the PDP. The seeming popularity enjoyed by the PDP earlier before the presidential poll, in other words, appears to have been directed to the Labour Party unarguably because of the performance of the latter in the presidential election. This reality became clearer when Jandor, in his latest Arise TV interview, accused some PDP elders in the state of sabotaging the party.

Reacting to the allegation that he jettssioned selection rule in picking his running mate, Jandor slammed Chiefs Bode George, Bucknor Akerele and other elders in the party. He insisted the popularity bestowed on his counterpart in the Labour Party by some PDP elders was in the spirit of god-fatherism which he has always resisted in Lagos.

“I was able to clinch the ticket without the support of godfatherism and after, Bode George sold Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour to me and I refused because I left APC because of godfatherism. I cannot condone that in PDP. This is why he keeps eulogising Rhodes-Vivour, talking about assassination attempts on his life.

“What is happening in Lagos is that I am fighting without any godfather. Chief Bode George is always sabotaging the efforts of PDP candidates in every election cycle”.

The varying perspectives notwithstanding, it is arguably true that the two parties would have to double up their efforts if they are to approach the election separately. The repeat of the February 25 error, which saw the emergence of Tinubu as the winner, can only be worse since the parties have foreclosed formal alliance, one can only look forward to an interesting battle in the state.

But, given the extent to which Labour Party has challenged the ruling party with its performance in the presidential poll, it becomes a matter of prediction whether or not Rhodes-Vivour can enjoy the same support towards victory. Often, the claim is that the results of the presidential election largely influences the outcome of the gubernatorial poll. With the kind of surprises that came with the February 25 election however, how true will this claim be in Lagos tomorrow?

By Ambali Abdulkabeer

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