RipplesMetric: Inflation, election, budget… Assessing data across Nigeria in 2023

Over 200 million people living in Nigeria, who wished themselves a happy new year on January 1st 2023, looked forward to good prospects from the government in terms of policies and reforms.

However, these policies and reforms were hinged on electioneering activities within the first quarter of the year. While some executive administrators including the president and some governors, concluded their tenure of service, other political candidates were either looking forward to being elected newly into office or re-elected for a second term.

Former President, Muhammadu Buhari, while giving his New Year speech said, “We as Nigerians must also take responsibility to ensure we participate in ensuring that the 2023 elections are free and fair by not engaging in anti-state activities and other nefarious acts that may affect the run of the polls.”

He added that his administration would continue to pursue economic growth, focus on security and fight corruption. However, his tenure came to an end on May 29.

Nigerians have been made to endure policies enacted by both Buhari and President Bola Tinubu, which, in turn, affected the country’s economy. In this report, RippleMetrics reflects some key data relating to the economy, election coverage and other socio-economic parameters that stood out this year.

Increasing Inflation rate…highest in 18 years

In January, the National Bureau of Statistics reported an inflation rate of 21.84 per cent. However, up until Buhari left power in May, the inflation figures continued to rise to 22.41 per cent. The increase was majorly associated with the naira redesign policies enacted by the former president.

The policies were targeted at changing the N200, N500 and N1000 naira notes and cutting down the money in circulation. The downside to that was introducing a cashless transaction which tripled several businesses between the first four months of the year until it was upturned by a court judgement.

Meanwhile, when Tinubu came into power in May, he, during his inaugural speech, announced the removal of fuel subsidies which increased the prices of transportation, and petrol at pump stations by more than 300 per cent as well as the prices of household products. This continued to drive the inflation rate higher till it got to the peak of 28.2 per cent in November, the highest ever recorded in 18 years.

Election

Nigeria held its general presidential and gubernatorial election, between February and March. Out of 93.5 million voters eligible to participate in the electioneering exercises, only about 25 per cent voted. The participation was the lowest turnout since 1999.

READ ALSO:RipplesMetrics: 2024 proposed budget: What critical sectors are getting

However, Tinubu emerged as the winner securing 8.79 million votes.

Also, at the gubernatorial polls, where elections were held in 28 states, 15 states were claimed by the All Progressive Party (APC), nine states were claimed by the People Democratic Party (PDP), while the New Nigeria’s People Party (NNPP) and the Labour Party secured one state each.

Another off-cycle election was held in November in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo states. In Kogi, APC won both in Imo and Kogi state while PDP won in Bayelsa state. RipplesMetrics reported the number of Nigerian women who were elected in the 2023 general elections. However, most of the results have been challenged at the tribunal for a court verdict.

Debt and Fiscal ranking

Upon the election of the governors, both newly elected, re-elected and outgoing, RippleMetrics examined the key economic metrics, including Debt Management, IGR, Capital Importation, Out-of-school children, and poverty index.

The analysis covered the 17 governors leaving office by May 29 (Part 1 and Part 2), and the 18 incoming governors.

In further analysis In the first quarter of the year between January and March 2023, 11 states in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory, increased their domestic debts by a total of N2.56 trillion. The latest data also showed that As of June 2023, the state’s domestic debt stood at N5.82 trillion but fell to N5.74 trillion in September.

Budget…..IGR, FAAC

RipplesMetics also documented how in November, Tinubu presented his first appropriation bill of N27.5 trillion to a joint session of the National Assembly in the 2024 fiscal year. The budget is about N6 trillion higher than the N21.83 trillion approved by former president Muhammadu Buhari for 2023. RipplesMetrics has reported the trends of increasing budget proposals and approval in the last eight years.

Also, between January and September, a total of N11.48 trillion was disbursed as allocation from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) to all three tiers of government. Between 2019 and 2022, the 36 states and the FCT recorded a total of N7.02 trillion as internally generated revenue.

Insecurity… Military airstrikes, road accidents

A local community in the Igabi Local Government area of Kaduna State, on December 3 gathered to celebrate Maulud when a military bomb was dropped on them. The airstrike was reported to have killed over 80 people with several people sustaining injuries, including women and children. RipplesMetrics reported then tends in the military airstrike in Nigeria.

Also, RippleMetrics analysed data from the NBS on road traffic crashes which showed that a total of 6,456 people died in 2022. When divided by 365 days in a year, this puts the average amount of deaths per day at 17.

By James Odunayo

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