The Steve Jobs’ way

Crisis equals opportunity. And difficult roads often lead to amazing destinations. Always? Sometimes?

Brutus to Cassius in Julius Caesar by William Shakespeare put it succinctly:
’’There is a tide in the affairs of men (Nations), which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures’’.

In Greek rhetoric, it is called: ’KAIROS’ i.e. the ideal moment for a significant, strategic strike. One of the seven pillars of STOIC Philosophy is FLOW, the great Stoics, rather than fighting against the tide, the wise ones consciously work with those forces of necessity and circumstances.

I sometimes soliloquize in my library on the looming post C-19 dangers: is there something the government has off its sleeves -a magic wand that Nigerians are not yet aware of that makes the gravity of their response not to match the reality and severity of the danger we are confronted with? Put directly, is Nigeria ready for the social and economic consequences of a 25% reduction in the entire workforce of the private sector? Because that is what will likely happen: 25% new joblessness to aggravate the existing 30 million joblessness!

In the US, St. Louis Fed. Projection is 52.8miilon or 32% job loss of the entire America workforce.

In the UK, according to David Blanchflower, a Professor of Economics and member of the Bank’s interest rate-setting committee, saw unemployment rising to 21% of the total workforce. He said: ‘’ There has never been such a concentrated business collapse. The government has tried to respond but it has no idea of the scale of the problem it is going to have to deal with. We make some black-of-the-envelope calculations, and they are scary’’. 27% of businesses in the UK including Richard Branson’s Empire are currently laying off staff despite the UK Chancellor’s Rishi Sunak announcement of 330 billion pounds loan guarantees and a programme to pay 80% of staff on companies’ payrolls.

Even in China, where truth is as scarce as diamond, Liu Chenjie, Chief Economist at Fund Manager Upright Asset said: ‘’ the pandemic may have pushed 205 million Chinese into frictional unemployment where they want to work but cannot or are unable to go back to work. This represent about 25% of China’s 775 million workforce. The NBS official data of 6% only covers urban workforce of 442 million but exclude 290 million migrant workers’’.

Here in Nigeria, in a leaked video on the eve of Workers Day (30/04/2020), the CEO of a major bank in Nigeria submitted that his bank will have no choice than to lay-off most of its workers and go digital in order to survive. Also a major Nigeria Airline is set to off-load about 90% of its entire workforce.

As workers resume 4th of May, 2020, most of them will be resuming with NOTHING, unto NOTHING and for NOTHING.
Chinese economist calls it FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT.

The Hospitality industry is in a state of coma, Airline industry in limbo. Private Schools are facing existential threat, Restaurants in ICU. Cinema in emergency room. Sports in the orthopedic hospital. Name them….
In 2008 & 2016 when the crises were milder, some Nigerians jumped into the Lagos lagoon due to hopelessness.

Now with this looming massive job loss, we need a NATIONAL DIALOGUE. How do we stabilize the companies so that they will not off-road load staff recklessly into the already saturated labour market?

* Nostradamus saw tomorrow, of a truth, when he said in 1551 “that in a twin year 2020 a corona from China will transform the twilight of men into dust to destroy and ruin the world bringing an end to the world economy as we know it’’.

What lessons can Nigeria learn from America’s GREAT DEPRESSION?
One cold, windy morning of Tuesday, October 29th, 1929, the stocks market crashed and sent Wall Street into instant cardiac arrest. Millions of investors lost their entire savings. Mass suicide followed. 25% of all wage earners in America lost their jobs. But the signs had been there all along that President Hoover ignored. There had been uneven distribution of wealth and purchasing power, decades of agricultural slump, causing food scarcity coupled with international instability. In a jiffy, recession metamorphosed into GREAT DEPRESSION.

President Herbert Hoover’s response was slow, indecisive and lethargic. He asked Americans to be patient and self-reliant without offering concrete steps to stop the nation from haemorrhaging. He appealed to companies not to retrench their workers without providing stimulus package to cushion the effect of the economic recession. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, his successor, describe President Hoover as a ‘’hear nothing, see nothing, do nothing President’’.

The depression lasted 10 years (1929-1939), but in three years (1930-1933) more than 9,000 American banks had collapsed, eroding over $3billion depositor’s funds.
FDR came up with a bold, decisive and practicable solution tagged: FDR NEW DEAL & CULTURE. This new deal re-defined the role of government in American life. FDR worked with Congress to pass 15 laws including the Agricultural Adjustment Act and National Industrial Recovery Act.

In explaining the gravity of the GREAT DEPRESSION to Americans, FDR said: ‘’ Let us wage a war against the emergency just as tough we were in fact invaded by a foreign foe. But let us realise that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself…’’

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1941 was a year of twin jeopardy: Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor during WW2. The war stimulated American industry, in an unprecedented manner. Like the Phoenix, America arose from the ashes of The GREAT DEPRESSION and WW2, obtained a new life that made it become the greatest country on planet earth. In a word, America, a child of circumstance, transformed by flipping the twin crises into opportunity. America displaced Great Britain, its former colonial master, to emerge as the World’s Class Captain and vetoed its GREEN BACK (USD) as the medium of international trade and exchange till this day.

Question: will Nigeria seize the moment or allow this monumental crisis to go into waste, just the same way it wasted the civil war opportunity? Wherever Nigeria finds itself in the new world- Next Level of abundance and stability or Next Level of poverty and cascading crisis- is dependent on our collective resolve to shift appropriately as the world shifts.

From the feedbacks and response I have received recently from people worldwide on my articles, I can confidently categorize Nigerians into four distinct groups, using the four gear positions of my car as labels.
50% of Nigerians are already in what I call the ‘’PARK’’ gear position (these are Nigerians who have mentally signed-out , switched-off– they have totally given up on Nigeria), the second category are the ones in the “REVERSE’’ gear position ( these ones have not only given up on Nigeria but they have reversed their nationality or are in the process of dumping Nigeria nationality for other countries – these represent 20%), the third category are Nigerians in the ‘’NEUTRAL’’ gear position- these ones are adopting – ‘’siddon look’’ approach- they have not lost total hope but they are not enthusiastic about Nigeria- they represent 20%). The last group are the ones in the ‘’DRIVE’’ gear position- these ones represent just 10% of the samples- they are fanatical and resilient ones who still believe Nigeria’s future is bright, but needs to be re-worked and re-calibrated. The people in this DRIVE position are mostly religious ones who use faith as their anchor.

A situation where only 10% of the sampled population still believes in the Nigeria PROJECT and 90% has unsubscribed mentally or even physically to the project is a sign of how deep the problem is. No country with that type of demographics or mentality can achieve any worthwhile progress. Bluntly put: of the 200 million population, only 10% or 20 million are Nigerians at heart- in action and in words!

When I stumbled on the story of the 18th duck on the social media, by an anonymous author – I saw an answer to unlocking the Nigeria destiny in the story. I reproduced the story here below verbatim.

A father left 17 ducks as assets for his Three Sons.

When the Father passed away, his sons opened up the will.

The Will of the Father stated that the Eldest son should get Half of 17 ducks,

The Middle Son should be given 1/3rd of 17 ducks,

Youngest Son should be given 1/9th of the 17 ducks

As it is not possible to divide 17 into half or 17 by 3 or 17 by 9, the sons started to fight with each other.

So, they decided to go to a wise man who lived in a cave for advice.

The wise man listened patiently about the Will. The wise man, after giving the dilemma some thought, brought a duck of his own & added same to the 17. That increased the total to 18 ducks.

Now, he started reading the deceased father’s will.

Half of 18 = 9.
So he gave 9 ducks
to the eldest son.

1/3rd of 18 = 6.
So he gave 6 ducks
to the middle son.

And, 1/9th of 18 = 2.
So he gave 2 ducks
to the youngest son.

Now add this up:
9 + 6 + 2 = 17 &
This leaves 1 duck
which the wise man took back.

MORAL: There is ALWAYS a solution (despite the challenges). The attitude of negotiation & problem solving is to find the 18th duck, i.e. the common ground. Once a person is able to find the common ground, the issue is resolved. It is difficult at times but a resolution will be reached.

However, to reach a solution, the first step is to believe that there is a solution. If we think that there is no solution, we won’t be able to reach any!

The question is: what is the Nigeria’s 18th duck?
For want of a better name and borrowing from how FDR successfully piloted America ship away from total collapse- I call the 18th Duck: PMB NEW DEAL & CULTURE FOR NIGERIA. Call it PMB MAGIC BOX. If you will.

It is a comprehensive economic package that seeks to liberate Nigeria from underdevelopment in which the country has remained enmeshed these past 40 years:

1, Kudos to PMP for taking the first step to collapse the over 1000 Federal government Agencies by implementing the Orosanye report. Maybe we will end up with 100. Which is better than where we are presently. But sadly enough, it will not take Nigeria out of the woods. The kind of challenge confronting us today cannot be resolved by tokenism, only a complete overhaul of the system in PMB New Deal and Culture for the Nigeria people will suffice.

2, PMB should take the bull by the horn and implement FINANCIAL FEDERALISM. Crisis equals opportunity. This is a good opportunity for PMB to free himself from unnecessary blame and write his name in the letters of gold. He should set the states free with the support of National Assembly. PMB should send a one-paragraph letter to the Governors:’’ My Dear Governors- ‘’oil money is no more- go fend for yourselves. Merge with one another if you think you cannot survive on your own- everyone is free- no more monthly allocation from January 2021, Generate your revenue. Keep it. Pay your tax as agreed to the federal government. Become your DREAMS, live within your means. I am determined to save the little oil revenue for the future generation as part of my legacy to Nigeria. It’s my desire to raise the foreign reserves to about $300billion by the time I am leaving office in 2023, so that in future, if this kind of pandemic happens again, Nigerians will have something to fall back upon. Kindly use the next 7 months to plan and come up with alternative strategy for your respective state survival. Good luck. PMB’’

The 36 states will automatically and voluntarily collapse into four or six viable BLOCKS on their own volition for economic survival. Each Block can then appoint a SECRETARY to coordinate their affairs. About 60% of re-current expenditure will be saved for infrastructure, education and START-UP development. There will be a healthy competition among the Economic Blocks.

FDR took many bold steps like this that saved the US in the 1930s from total collapse. FDR became an American hero after the war. PMB can become the greatest leader Nigeria has ever had depending on how he utilises this monumental crisis.

3, Advertise the 4 Most Critical Ministerial Positions in the newspapers and conduct rigorous interviews for these applicants before appointment: (A) Minster of FOOD, whose key target will be to make Nigeria a net food exporter in 3 years), (B) Minister of Innovation and start-ups, whose job will be to midwife the creation of 500,000 new businesses yearly capable of employing ten staff each, (C) Minister of LIGHT, whose key target will be to provide 24/7 electricity within 3 years, ( D) Minister of Economic Reconstruction and Development, whose key target is to give Nigeria a 21st century infrastructure from the taxes collected. Subject their respective agenda to public scrutiny by Nigerians using video conferencing technology to engage the applicants before PMB makes his final decision.

In a war situation, the most competent Military men become the Commanders- Nepotism, ethnicity, primordial considerations don’t come into the equation. We are in a war situation now, let only the brightest and the best occupy the most sensitive positions and get us out of the red-ocean to the blue ocean.

4, A retired Senior Army Officer and an Elder States man in his eighties, Col Peter Kolawole Obasa recommended some measures which I agree with. One: he said since we have a minimum wage of N30K per month ( which he says should be increased to N50K), the PMP NEW DEAL should include MAXIMUM WAGE as well for government officials and politicians. The President will be the highest salary earner with a monthly salary of not more than N1.5 million per month (all-in). Two, grading of roads and enforcement of ROAD-TAX according to the size of the car. Three, revolution in the air. As he put it: ‘’on our skies, we shall create some turbulence. Owners of private jets in the country shall pay a daily parking fee of $5,000, while the landing and taking-off fees of $10,000 per trip becomes effective immediately. You want to import a private jet, fine. Import tax is 300% of cost price paid in hard currency. Then you pay what others pay to fly in Nigeria’’. I also agree with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s recommendation that all the aircraft 10 of them) in the Presidential Fleet should be sold off. Presidents of richer countries like UK, Singapore, European countries fly Commercial aircraft.

Apart from the President and Governors who can use maximum of 4 official cars- all other government officials should have only one official car- including National Assembly members. Those who ride 2.0 litres car will pay N50K as road tax per year while those who ride 8-litres engine will pay up to N2 million road tax yearly. Those who ride any car below 2.0 litres are free from road tax. Any country where politics is the most viable profession and the most lucrative job- such a nation is doomed. Any country that allows the kind of life-style the 1% lives here in Nigeria without conscious and corresponding wealth re-distribution strategy is equally doomed.

5, The $3 Trillion C-19 VACCINE/CURE BUSINESS: Nigeria to join the 100-metre dash competition of countries seriously looking for the C-19 VACCINE/CURE. One country has put a price tag of $350 per bottle on its drug. We have 7.5 billion potential consumers worldwide. Do the Math. PMP to put $10 million on the table in May 2020 for Nigerian medical doctors in the diaspora to team up with their colleagues in Nigeria and research into all the God-giving home grown herbs and leaves in Nigeria that can cure COVID-19 and future/emerging viruses. Any country with the most potent cure will become remarkably wealthy instantly. Senegal, Madagascar, Israel, France, UK, Germany, USA, India, China are all on the field searching for the C-19 HOLY GRAIL.

6, Also, inside the PMB Magic Box is the establishment of six modern Cattle Villages in Sambisa forest, Kano, Bauchi, Niger, Kaduna and one other location. The Fulani herdsmen-farmer tango should be resolved with wisdom. All talks on agricultural revolution in Nigeria will come to nothing without solving this problem of kidnapping of successful farmers for ransom by some Fulani herdsmen. Use Drones technology to plant and re-plant grasses to feed the cattle in those special six villages. Make borehole available to provide permanent water, build schools, and provide electricity in those villages. Abolish open grazing- it is anachronistic, it’s the number one cause of famine.
C-19 + Herdsmen kidnapping of farmers for ransom = Famine= disaster.
PMB NEW DEAL =abundant cattle=abundant food crops=peace=prosperity

7, PLANTAING OF 1BILLION TRESS IN THE NORTH: if the major problem responsible for the mass herdsmen migration from the North to the South is desert encroachment, then the solution is AFFORESTATION. Drone technology exists today to plant 50 million trees per day. A new Water technology exists today to compress normal atmospheric air to plenty water for cow and grass and human beings.
Robot technology exists today that can plant grasses on 10,000 hectares of land in one day. We can easily deploy these three new technologies in northern Nigeria and stop desertification. This will bring even development across Nigeria. The North will become a net exporter of food within 24 months.
We can have both the cow and the food crops in abundance without shedding blood. Technology exits today that can bail Nigeria out of the circle of violence.

The STEVE JOBS WAY for NIGERIA

Steve Jobs, the first man to create the world’s most valuable company, the world’s first Trillion dollar company has something to teach us. His company, Apple, is seven times richer than Nigeria. As at 2019, Apple had $250 billion cash reserves compared with Nigeria’s $38billion cash reserves for its 200 million population!
Therefore, if Steve Jobs wakes up today to rule Nigeria: what will he do differently? Steve will kill OIL, metaphorically speaking! He will advertise and hand over NNPC, its subsidiaries and all the government- run refineries to the most efficient company in the world to run as a Management Consultant and give them 100% freedom. He will take Nigeria out of OPEC+. He will set two targets for the Management Consultants: Work with the Joint Ventures Partners to bring production cost of a barrel of oil to be at par with the best-in-class (from $30 to $12). Pump as much as we can pump from the ground and sell about 3 million barrels per day. Deposit all
Nigeria revenue in our foreign reserves as savings for the rainy day. He will challenge the Consultant to deliver 300% revenue of what Nigeria realises today. The Consultant will only make money when they have delivered what NNPC will deliver +X. Their money comes from the extra money they generate: NNPC+X +1. Nigeria will share with the consultant anything on the +1 in 80:20 ratio in favour of Nigeria.

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Lagos state government monthly IGR in 1999 was N400million. Today the state generates over N25billion monthly. What changed? LASG uses consultants to drive revenue. Government all over the world are notoriously bad business managers, more so, in Nigeria.

Steve Jobs killed the chicken (iPod) that laid the golden egg for Apple. One iPod then was equivalent to the price of 40 barrels of oil today and it was selling like hot potato. He sold millions of it worldwide. But one day, to the surprise of the Apple Board, Steve announced that he wanted to kill iPod. Everyone was shocked. Why, they asked him. Steve told the Board:’’ *If Apple does not kill iPod by itself, new technologies and competition will kill it- and Apple would have lost both ways*’’. He discarded iPod and merged it with a new product called iPhone.

What are the lessons Nigeria can learn from Steve Jobs mentality?

One, whether Nigeria likes it or not, oil’s best future was yesterday: it has passed. If Nigeria does not kill oil from its mentality and calculation, Saudi Arabia is killing oil (Read: Saudi Arabia Vision 2030), China is going to kill oil (read: Made-In-China- 2025).China’s electric vehicles, the killer of gasoline- powered vehicles are ready. Japan, Brazil, Europe are all killing oil with their Climate Change campaign and strategy.

The truth is: oil is terminally ill- if it survives the next 15 years – it might spend the last 5 on a life-support-machine or on a wheel chair.

Saudi Arabia and Russia know this. This is why they are behaving irrationally without consideration for the survival and prosperity of Nigeria and other OPEC members.

Steve Jobs created 4 new products to fill the iPod vacuum (i.e. iPhone, iPad, iTunes and 21stcentury Mac).

PMB NEW DEAL& CULTURE should challenge the Governors to go and create their own iPhone (Agriculture), iPad (ICT) and Mac (Mineral resources mining, processing and finishing in Nigeria). iTunes (Tourism and Manufacturing).

This is Nigeria’s ’KAIRO’S’ MOMENT. Like William Shakespeare advised… And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures’’.

Mr Icema Reid, a Jamaican who read one of my articles recently sent me a touching feedback from Jamaica that the global community and the entire Black race are anxiously awaiting Nigeria’s manifestation on the world stage: ‘’the real Asian Tiger (China) has awaken, it is time also for the (real) African Lion (Nigeria) to ROAR’’!!!!

LET’S GET SERIOUS NOW, OR, LET’S STOP PLAYING

Author: Tim Akano…

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