OPINION: Are we about to witness another World War from Africa?

Over the last four weeks there have been a tense situation within the African continent. First, in Niger, the Military leaders under its new ‘National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) had issued a 48hours deadline for the French Ambassador, Sylvain Itte to leave the country.

Then, military juntas of both Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger entering a new defense pact to defend each other. To the call on its new military Cadets to prepare for a ‘Complicated situation’ and, to the charge on the military to be on a ‘maximum alert’ to prevent as Gen. Tchiani said, “a general surprise”.

In another event, the military leaders have said it hopes to stay in power for three years, which totally sets against the current moves of the ECOWAS for a return to civil rule. And to the most shocking, yet another coup explosion in Gabon – which is a story for another day. With the Niger juntas issuing a dispel threat and with the military leaders saying it is willing to protect itself against any external invasion, the stage is no doubt set for unpredictable days.

When we hear the word ‘World War’, too often we are quick to make reference to the West. Crisis in the West are termed ‘World’ while crisis in Africa are likely termed ‘Tribal Clashes’ or ‘Ethnic Wars’. Again, when we hear the threats of a ‘World War’ what comes to mind is Europe, Asia; Russia, America, Ukraine, or China and Taiwan. The media is likely to caution against tensed up conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, or China and Taiwan. Precaution for a world war are more observed from this poles, and less likely to look same at what is likely about to unfold in Africa.

In his Article “Where Do You Score on the Deep State/Aliens/World War III/Vaccine Insanity Test?” The Stream.Org, writer and popular columnist John Zmirak gives a clue of this hightened issues, our complex fear about it, and where they can possibly come from. Zmirak, like the mainstream media, government, and scholars across the world are often locked in identifying the potential of a rising breaking world from Europe or Asia and often perceive less or give less thought to what Africa’s crisis may hold. Writers, the press, depict this fears from these standpoints, leaving very little worries to what playing events in Africa as potentials. But Africa faces one of the most dreary times, perhaps only close to those of the 1960’s when it began forging its independent states. Over six coups and unconstitutional take-over of power in three years, with the Niger posing the most controversial yet.

In the past three weeks, there has been a tense atmosphere. What seemed to be a 10-man coup and detention of an ousted president soon gained momentum and stormy clouds. In my previous article, “Niger Coup: Why Diplomacy May Do Better Than Military Actions”, The Cameroon News Agency & The Sensor Newspaper, i’d talked about the reason for the African instability (which many now term) the ‘francophone spring’, in which I highlighted that, coups, even though they are bogusly, do not hold the same meaning. I also dealt on reason for Diplomatic position and the likely outcome of a military action, citing issues of a volatile state of the Niger, the Nigerian gas pipe project which hopes to link Nigeria gas to Europe, an already exhausted international community, and the insecurity war and terrorism.

Since then a number of things have changed, but from what it seems not much has got better. On the part of the juntas they have not opened much for dialogue, and on the part of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) it seems to be running out of patience.

In this regard, the military juntas have said they are prepared to protect themselves against an imminent invasion and would defend itself, as the Niger leader had stated, “If an attack were to be undertaken against us, it will not be a walk in the park some people seem to think”. In the same vein the ECOWAS leadership under its heads of defense have said it is issuing its last warning. But the Nigeriens are not neutral, from reports, they have pitched a side, and from what it looks it is one increasingly with the military. Massive outings for pro-military protest, and a massive acceptance. According to one report, “We don’t give a damn about ECOWAS. ECOWAS has been tailor-made for the president in power. And we do not need it”, said one Omar Amadou a resident of Niamey to the Associated Press.

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And to comments from Idrissa Holidou, a health worker, “We are people of war, we are ready to fight against ECOWAS”. Very little argument can arise from here. First, how long can the ECOWAS hold? In the case of a possible invasion what would the outcome be? If there is anything to take, there may arise devastating crisis in Africa if caution is not taken. Alliance are already gaining momentum as well as military preparations. The ECOWAS group have said it has activated a ‘Standby Force’. On the side of Niger, calls have been made by enthusiasts on young Nigeriens to enlist into the military. It is a call to defend motherland and has been readily embraced.

There are several reasons to consider this topic important, but academically much more. One reason to consider it is this: How may we consider the current imbrioglo between the Niger juntas and the ECOWAS? It is not a civil war, neither is it a secessionist one, nor is it a war against another state. The fact that it is a war without an actual opponent makes it increasingly so. The ECOWAS is not a state, nor are the junta’s yet one recognized by modern international order.
But this assertion is rather emboldened here.
2. It is a battle for ideology.
In one sense the Niger-cum-ECOWAS conflict offers a similarity of what the great wars (wwi & wwii) were about- a battle for ideology, which goes a huge way in what the ECOWAS group have said it may not rule out the possibility of invading the Niger to install a democratic rule. In this we are about to see a coalition of what we may represent as a battle between ‘pro-military’ force and ‘pro-democrats’. And a wide variety of acceptance gaining momentum from both polar axis.

3. It will be a War of Alliance.
In the event of a break of a military confrontation we are about to see a massive Coalition play out. Potential military arrangements of no less than 13 pro-democracy states up against four pro-military camp. To say the least, both great wars, besides ideological reasons where wars of alliances – The ‘allies’ and the ‘axis’ powers. In the recent conflict, both military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have already signed an agreement of co-operation with each other with the warning that an ECOWAS intervention could lead to a military response from their states. In the same vein, the ECOWAS , through its heads of defence have formed an alliance through its standby force, waiting to deploy.

4. A War of Huge International Influence.
We may witness another war between/of blocs which played out in Europe during wwii and the post war effects. With expanding bloc of the Putschists camp the ECOWAS is witnessing a divide. Even though not yet in the actual warfare, it is already up in so many ways; economic, social, which is already playing out as sanctions against each other, travel bans, and de-recognization of diplomatic envoys. This blocs may even expand into international frontlines. In the international front the Niger-cum-ECOWAS conflict may turn into an extension of an already existing conflict between an already frictional bloc of the far East and the far West, which is already fighting an indirect War in Ukraine and in Taiwan. In the event of a war, we may see massive support for the ‘pro-militaries’ coming from States of China, Russia, North-Korea, and a huge measure of supports from those of the continent north; and a large chunk of the Western States of the United States, Germany, and Britain, which France is already leading, backing the ECOWAS.

As I write, the French Ambassador has not yet left Niamey and Paris has responded that it will not recognise a dispellant issuance from an undemocratic Niger. To the most threatening: Paris has reported last week that one of its official has been arrested by the military authority.
But one lesson the aftermath of the Niger conflict or the Anglophone spring may bring is this: the rising coup trend/military take-over will force scholars to see it now not only as a military take-over, but as an ideological war. And true, one between the force of democracy and the force of the uniform. And with the rising population support, this war will not be fought or won with the guns in the coming years but by how well each is able to offer the better life and change the fortunes of its citizens.

Finally, we may not be sure if the Niger-cum-ECOWAS conflict will break into a war or a military confrontation, and we hope it does not. But one thing we are sure is this, the Niger Conflict will present scholars and strategists a newer way to view and understand conflict for many years to come.

AUTHOR:Jerry O. Jonah

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Articles published in our Graffiti section are strictly the opinion of the writers and do not represent the views of Ripples Nigeria or its editorial stand.

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