Preview… 2016: What change awaits Nigerians?

In from Timothy Enietan-Matthews . . .

Nigerians joined others the world over to bid farewell to the year 2015, and welcomed another, 2016. For many the world over, transiting from one year to another is a landmark achievement that elicits great celebration and merry-making. This may not be out of place, especially in a third world country like Nigeria, where life expectancy has become criminally poor and life itself a hard one.

For Nigerians, there may be a lot to celebrate as not too many people, within and outside the shores of this great country expected that the nation will still be standing united and in peace after the 2015 general elections. Before the elections, there were doomsday prophecies predicting the disintegration of the country after the elections. There was fear and anxious anticipation of widespread trouble, large scale violence and deaths, so much that people started migrating to their places of origin not to be caught in the crossfire that was to come.

The change mantra seems to have already waned and people are beginning to ask questions. Hope is giving way to despondency and lack of faith in the change promised.

The elections came and went without any major outbreak of the expected violence except for pockets of disturbances usually associated with elections in these climes. On the whole, the election was adjudged free, fair and peaceful by the international community, though largely because of the action of one man, former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, who gracefully accepted defeat and congratulated his opponent, President Muhammadu Buhari, even before the final result was announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

The inauguration of President Buhari on the 29th of May, 2015 brought with it a heightened hope that Nigeria and Nigerians will witness dramatic change, just as the president’s party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, had promised during its electioneering campaigns. The chant of change became the most popular refrain even after inauguration, as Nigerians, who believed so much in the second coming of President Buhari told whoever cared to listen that the president was about performing some miraculous feats uncommon in this part of the world.

They talked about his body language as the reason so many sectors of the nation’s life started working; they talked about his integrity and seeming incorruptibility and so many other things. However, as weeks rolled into months, it became clear that the challenges facing the nation were too daunting for the body language of Mr President to fix as anticipated.

The failure to realize this dream of instant change gave way to anxiety of what to expect and what would be the lot of Nigerians. There is no doubt that things have become worse since the President took over on May 29! There is no doubt that the prices of commodities that are very important to the average Nigerians have skyrocketed, with many celebrating one of their bleakest Christmas ever. There is no doubt Nigerians have had to endure almost two months of gruelling fuel scarcity that threatened to halt every form of economic activities. There is no doubt that despite claims of winning the war against terrorism, the Boko Haram still have a field day killing and maiming in parts of Borno State up till the time of writing this piece. There is no doubting the fact that Nigerians are beginning to have a rethink about the change promised, as questions are being asked as to the true nature of the change mantra!

If truth must be told, the Buhari administration has handled the anti-corruption campaign as one solely targeted at members of the PDP and nothing more. This will no doubt continue to cast doubts on the sincerity of Mr President.

On the whole, 2015 was a year many will want to put quickly behind them, especially the later part, just as there are apprehensions for the new year, 2016. Apprehension, not because they are not happy to see a brand new year, but because every economic indices point to something untoward in the offing. Apprehension, because even the Nigerian government had indicated that the incoming year will be a tough one, in which tough and unpopular decisions would have to be made!

Read also: Review… How media chat unveiled the real Buhari

Despite the widespread apprehensions about what 2016 holds and the current confusion in the land, it will be a disservice to the Buhari administration not to note a couple of bright indications for the incoming year.

The 2016 Budget
The 2016 budget, tagged Budget of Change, is one positive indication for the year 2016. Though it has been branded over ambitious by several economic and financial analysts, with the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, accusing the Buhari administration of trying to mortgage the future of Nigerians with the large scale borrowing the budget deficit will occasion, it must be noted that the budget is a pace setting one that will drastically improve the Nigerian economy if implemented to the letter.

With an allocation of N1.7 trillion to infrastructure, the 2016 budget no doubt is a revolutionary one that will change the face of the Nigerian landscape, especially in the area of road construction and rehabilitation. It is instructive to note that most federal budgets before now had always tilted towards recurrent expenditure without a corresponding attention to capital projects.

This, coupled with the daily “home grown feeding” of school children and free tertiary education for science and technology students, points to a bright forecast for 2016.

One nagging issue that Nigerians are beginning to take a more than passing look at is the issue of the removal of fuel subsidy, the reduction of the pump price of petrol and the possibility of government regulation in the a deregulated regime.

Away from the budget, one nagging issue that Nigerians are beginning to take a more than passing look at is the issue of the removal of fuel subsidy, the reduction of the pump price of petrol and the possibility of government regulation in the a deregulated regime.
The Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr Emmanuel Ibe Kachickwu, had announced in Port Harcourt on Christmas day that the pump price of petrol would be N85 from January, while also hinting of the final removal of subsidy. He however changed gear a few days later in Kaduna, when he tactically distanced himself from the gathering storm over the removal of subsidy, when he said he does not want to be drawn into the subsidy issue. He also tried hard to sell the dummy to Nigerians, saying as at that time, late December 2015, when petrol still sold for N87, there was nothing like subsidy.

Though many Nigerians already criticised the government, Kachichwu especially, for the less than tidy way the insignificant reduction was arrived at, the year 2016 will surely be a turbulent one over the subsidy issue, especially the early part.
Aside the confusion that will ensue over the decision of the Federal Government to regulate a deregulated petroleum sector, the Nigeria Labour Congress on Monday, the 28 of December, issued what may as well be a notice of an impending showdown with government over the subsidy issue.
The NLC, in a statement by its General Secretary, Dr. Peter Ozo-Eson, said it was determined to fight the surreptitious removal of the fuel subsidy.

According to him, a meeting of the National Executive Committee of the congress would be convened in January.
Ozo-Eson, in the statement, wondered why opposition politicians who encouraged the mass action against the former administration to remove the fuel subsidy were now agitating for its removal, adding that the removal of the fuel subsidy without the capacity to refine crude oil for local consumption would unleash hardship on workers and indeed the average Nigerian.
The NLC warning may just be President Buhari’s first baptism of fire in his young presidency; a baptism no leader will pray for!

Aside the removal of petrol subsidy, another subject that will dominate political discourse in the course of the New Year is the fight against corruption. The anti-corruption posture of President Buhari was one of the pedestals upon which he was able to sway Nigerian electorate to vote for him at the 2015 presidential election and there is no doubting the fact that he has seemingly faced the prosecution of former corrupt public officers squarely.
However, the sour point of the anti-corruption war, which may continue to cast a cloud of insincerity on the crusade, is the allegation that the prosecution of the war against corruption has been largely partisan and selective.

Despite the widespread apprehensions about what 2016 holds and the current confusion in the land, it will be a disservice to the Buhari administration not to note a couple of bright indications for the incoming year.

It is instructive to note that all those that have been arrested and charged to court by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, and its ally, the Department of State Service, DSS, are members of the PDP, and those who served under the administration of former President Jonathan and chose to remain in the now opposition party. Nothing has so far been heard of the tenure of those who also served under Jonathan but defected to the now ruling APC, in the dying days of the former administration.

Read also: Buhari: I am slow for a purpose

If truth must be told, the Buhari administration has handled the anti-corruption campaign as one solely targeted at members of the PDP and nothing more. This will no doubt continue to cast doubts on the sincerity of Mr President in his avowed bid to rid the nation of corruption and corrupt elements.
It is also pertinent to note that President Buhari shot himself in the leg when he emphatically declared during his first media chat that he did not appoint anybody with traits of corruption in his cabinet. The question, however, is how did the President arrive at the conclusion that no one in his cabinet, especially those who held political office, either elected or appointed, in the last dispensation, is free of corruption. It is also ridiculous that only those who elected to stay back in the PDP are being demonised as corrupt!

The way the President carries on with the anti-corruption crusade will determine, to a large extent, how the President’s handling of the affairs of the nation will be viewed by Nigerians.
Closely related to the above is the Buhari administration’s already established penchant for disobedience for court orders and its disdain for the rule of law. The actions of the DSS, especially in the cases of a former National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki and Director of Radio Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu, already portray the Buhari administration as dictatorial, tyrannical and contemptuous of due process and the rule of law.

If there were doubts as to the above, the categorical endorsement of the illegal actions of the DSS in the case of Dasuki and Kanu by President Buhari during his media chat, has erased those doubts and raised the fear that Nigerians may be up for a rough and raw deal in the hands of the present administration in the New Year. Though so many Nigerians have expressed this fear, it is however disheartening that some Nigerians, in the name of change and partisanship, have elected to support the illegality being perpetrated by the Buhari administration, hailing it to high heavens.

There is no doubt that despite claims of winning the war against terrorism, the Boko Haram still have a field day killing and maiming in parts of Borno State.

This subtle endorsement of the government’s highhandedness is expected to embolden the government to commit even greater illegalities, breaches of the fundamental freedoms of citizens and continual brazen disobedience of valid court orders.

This will not be without widespread discontent with the Buhari administration, as is already evident. The change mantra seems to have already waned and people are beginning to ask questions. Hope is giving way to despondency and lack of faith in the change promised. This is expected to even assume a new dimension in the New Year!

On the whole, the year 2016, for Nigerians, is a year to tighten the belt, watch your back closely and expect less, than was promised.

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