RipplesMetrics: Eight charts that summarise Nigeria’s economy as citizens struggle to survive

It is a fact that all is not well with the Nigerian economy on many fronts. These range from weak revenue, pilling debts and poor performance of the Nigerian currency.

So how did Nigeria’s economy perform in the last six months?

3.1% GDP growth

The Nigerian economy sustained its recovery from recession for the fifth consecutive quarter, growing by 3.11% in real terms in Q1 2022, compared with first quarter of 2021 real growth rate of 0.51%.

Q1, 2022 positive result was heavily influenced by the service sector, which contributed 56.17% of the total output.

The agricultural sector contributed 22.36% and the industrial sector 21.47%.

Inflation at 18.6%

The prices of goods and services, headline inflation have been on the increase since the start of the year.

According to National Bureau of Statitics figures, inflation which started out the year at 15.6% is presently at 18.60%.

The rising inflation has created untold hardship for Nigerians, and it is estimated that if inflation continues to rise, an additional 7 million people will be pushed into poverty by the end of the year.

Already, citizens are spending more to put food on the table. as even everyday meals are now beyond reach for average Nigerians.

Interest rate hits 14%

To fight inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria was forced to increase benchemark for interest rate to 14%, the highest level since January 2019. The interest rate is the amount lenders charge borrowers.

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What this means is that Nigerians, SMEs, and businesses seeking loans from commerical banks will have to pay more while existing loans servicing will also be increased to reflect the adjusted rates.

Stock market gains

The stock market performance has been one of the few good news on the Nigerian economy.

Market capitalization, which is the value of a company on the floor of the stock exchange, started the year at N23.63 trillion by the end of the first week of January.

As at July 26, Market captilisation stands at N27.20 trillion, representing a whopping N3.5 trillion gain for investors.

FAAC shares N3.3trn

The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) has disbursed N3.306 trillion in the first five months of the year. January disbursement was the highest within the period when the sum of N699.82 billion was shared among the three tiers of government.

In February, the amount shared dropped to N574.7 billion, which also was the month with the least amount allocated so far this year.

N695.03 billion was shared in March and N656.6 billion in April. May FAAC disbursements saw the three tiers of government splitting the sum of N680.78 amongst themselves.

$73 budget benchmark

Actual average crude oil price has been higher than the budget benchmark price of $73 per barrel. However, higher oil price has been offset by lower oil output, which as of April 2022 stood at an average of 1.32 mbpd.

NNPC attributes the fall in oil production to the high incidence of crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism.

Revenue shortfalls

As of April 2022, FGN’s retained revenue was only N1.63 trillion, 49% of the prorata target of N3.32 trillion.

The FGN share of oil revenues was N285.38 billion (representing 39% performance) while non-oil tax revenues totalled N632.56 billion – a performance of 84%. CIT and VAT collections were N298.83 billion and N102.97 billion, representing 99% and 98% of their respective targets.

Customs collections (made up of import duties, excise and fees, as well as federation account special levies) trailed target by N76.77 billion (25.42%).

Other revenues amounted to N664.64 billion, of which Independent revenue was N394.09bn.

N4.72 trillion expenditure

The aggregate expenditure for 2022 is estimated at N17.32 trillion, with a prorata spending target of N5.77 at end of April.

The actual spending as of April 31st was N4.72 trillion. Of this amount, N1.94 trillion was for debt service whch is higher than the revenue.

Personnel cost stood at N1.26 trillion and this includes pensions. As at April, N773.63 billion has been spent on capital expenditure.

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