Politics

Is Bola Tinubu’s house crumbling?

Published

8 years ago

September 25, 2016

Is Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s political empire beginning to show signs of serious distress? Are the signals from Ondo and Kogi clear pointers to greater turbulence in Southwest Nigeria where Asiwaju, as he is fondly called, is perceived to reign supreme? These are the questions on the lips of many a critic.

Here is the big read.

On Friday, a select group of candidates who lost out in the Ondo primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) rallied the Nigerian media to a briefing. They were Olusegun Oke, Ajayi Boroffice and Segun Abraham. They had a sole agenda, to indict the leadership of their party for tolerating ‘corruption and irregularities’.

The protests had been on for a while but reached a head when the trio collectively resolved to literally wash the party’s dirty linens before the world. They particularly lashed out at the party Chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun for over-turning the decision of the National Working Committee (NWC) on the guber primaries.

It was not difficult to see through their actions and the struggle for control of political power in the Southwest. That Abraham and Boroffice had both moral and material backing from Asiwaju, the most visible and influential politician in Yorubaland is no secret. It was Tunji Abayomi, a former ally, that fired the first salvo against Tinubu in an open letter, accusing him of trying to manipulate the guber primaries. The upheaval that eventually threw up Rotimi Akeredolu is seen as an orchestrated gang-up to checkmate the national leader.

The loss to Akeredolu who was returned by Oyegun as APC’s candidate in the Ondo November guber poll is, therefore, seen by many as a shrink in Tinubu’s sphere of influence. Abraham and Boroffice have vowed to fight on in some other ways. The worry within political circles, especially the ruling party, is that Tinubu’s silence portends danger for APC’s cohesion.

Asiwaju is held to have been out-smarted in his own game and is reported to be bracing up for other battles intended to diminish his control of Southwest politics. Ondo, from all indications, was a loss too painful to bear, especially as it was one he was forced to concede to ‘small boys’ on the political turf.

However, before any fight back, Asiwaju’s team has to come to terms with the full implication of the loss in Kogi which began with the death of Alhaji Abubakar Audu, the governorship candidate of the APC in the November, 2015 election in the State.

If there had been any grand conspiracy, it played out when Audu’s running mate and member of the House of Representatives representing Ikeja Federal Constituency, James Abiodun Falake, a well known Tinubu boy, who should have been the natural replacement for Audu was dumped for Yahaya Bello who later emerged as governor after a Supreme Court ruling. Interestingly, Bello had been accused of anti-party activities in the run up to the election.

Faleke’s only sin, sources in the party say, was his closeness to Tinubu, and allowing him to replace Audu will be allowing Tinubu to extend his political empire to Kogi and by extension, the North Central!

Will Tinubu rise from these political defeats? The answer seems to lie in a matter of conjectures. His doggedness, consistency and ability to identify potential leaders and develop them into beautiful brides not-withstanding, there are clear signals that his once loyal aides and acolytes appear determined to grow their own political fortunes and build new bridges.

Critics are quick to point to the likes of Governor Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State, Minister of Works, Housing and Power, Babatunde Raji Fashola, one-time poster boy of Lagos, and Kayode Fayemi, Minister of Solid Minerals Development as the few that may have moved on. The trio are said, at the moment, to enjoy the confidence of President Muhammadu Buhari.

However, with 2019, a critical election year approaching, Asiwaju is predictably keeping his cards to his chest, and may yet spring surprises. For one, he is speculated to be interested in the presidency himself if push comes to shove, insiders claim.

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