2024 budget threatened as OPEC+ cuts Nigeria’s crude oil output

The 2024 budget estimates recently submitted by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the National Assembly for consideration by the Senate and House of Representatives may have run into troubled waters after OPEC+, on Thursday handed Nigeria a 2024 oil output target lower than Africa’s largest oil producer had hoped for.

While Nigeria had projected a 1.78 million barrels per day crude output, OPEC+ at its 36th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, ONOMM held via videoconference, Thursday, lowered Nigeria’s 2024 oil output to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd).

“In accordance with the decision of the 35th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, the completion of the assessment by the three independent sources (IHS, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy) for production level that can be achieved in 2024 by Nigeria, Angola, and Congo as follows: Nigeria a 2024 target of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Angola 1.1 million bpd and Congo a target of 277,000 bpd”, OPEC+ said in the statement.

This is contrary to the projection of President Tinubu who had at the budget presentation ceremony based the budget on 1.78mbpd oil production.

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“After a careful review of developments in the world oil market and domestic conditions, we have adopted a conservative oil price benchmark of $77.96 per barrel and daily oil production estimate of 1.78 million barrels per day” the president had said.

The cut by OPEC+ is already generating reactions as Angola on Thursday disclosed that it was unhappy with its 2024 output target and does not plan to stick to it, Bloomberg reported.

“We will produce above the quota determined by OPEC,” Angola’s OPEC governor Estevao Pedro said in an interview on Thursday. “It is not a matter of disobeying OPEC; we presented our position, and OPEC should take it into consideration,” he said.

President Tinubu and Heineken Lokpobiri, Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum resources (oil) are yet to react to this development.

By Babajide Okeowo

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