Nigeria exits recession, as GDP grows by 0.11% in Q4 2020

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11% in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

In full-year 2020, however, Nigeria’s economy declined by 1.92 percent beating analysts’ forecast.

The Q4 2020 growth, however, is a weak one when compared to the corresponding period of 2019, ranking –2.44% points lower – although, the growth in fourth quarter last year was higher by 3.74% points compared to Q3 2020.

During the period under review, gross domestic product (GDP) stood at N43,564,006.29 million in nominal terms, a figure higher than that of 2019 Q4, when GDP aggregated N39,577,340.04 million, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed in its Q4 report.

Real growth of the oil sector was –19.76% (year-on-year) in Q4 2020, indicating a decrease by –26.12% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Growth decreased by –5.87% points when compared to Q3 2020.

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Further analysis showed the non-Oil sector dragged Nigeria out of recession as it grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020. Although, the growth is slower than the 2.26% growth recorded during the same period in 2019 – For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019.

The non-oil sector growth in Q4 2020 was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting), followed by Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction.

Mining & Quarrying grew nominally by –12.32% (year on year) in Q4 2020 while annual growth rate was –15.02% in 2020.

Agriculture sector grew by 14.03% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2020, showing a rise of 0.23% points from the same quarter of 2019. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 13.52%, there was an increase of 0.51% points.

Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 was recorded at 24.60% (year-on-year), -1.69% points lower than recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 (26.29%) but 11.06% points higher than the preceding quarter’s 13.54%.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the nominal year on year growth rate of Trade stood at –0.66%. This indicates a decrease by –2.69% points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 growth rate of 2.03% but 9.16% points higher than the previous quarter growth rate of –9.82%.

In nominal terms, Information and Communication growth was 16.32% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2020, a 6.46% points increase from 9.86% recorded in the same quarter of 2019, and 0.41% points from rates recorded in the preceding quarter. The quarter on quarter growth rate recorded in Q4 2020 was 23.16%.

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