REVIEW… Buhari’s Crumbling Cards

It was believed, a few months ago, that no force would be able to stop President Muhammadu Buhari’s second term plans. But as the days towards the 2019 general election draw closer, gambling on his chances seems no longer a card many are willing to play. Though one day is so long a time in politics, but the aggregation of what has transpired within the Buhari fraternity, suggests that he may as well have had his time with leadership of Nigeria.

Though Buhari came to power on the argument that his military background would help to stop Boko Haram and put an end to the regime of killings by the group, his sojourn in office since 2015, has however seen more killings in the hands of suspected Fulani herdsmen than Boko Haram had done since 2015.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), herdsmen killed one in Jos South, Plateau state, unknown gunmen killed two Nigerian police officers in Etim Ekpo, Akwa Ibom state and troops killed five Boko Haram militants in Mafa, Borno state on June 30. The CFR also records that on July 1, unknown gunmen killed six in Barkin Ladi, Plateau state, and Boko Haram killed 10 Nigerien soldiers in Bla Brin, Niger Republic, while robbers killed seven police officers and two civilians in Abuja on July 3.

On July 4, herdsmen killed five in Guykua, Adamawa state, three in Logo, Benue state while one person was killed in a communal clash in Billiri, Gombe state. Prior to that, in the week between June 23 and June 29, the CFR recorded more deaths in Nigeria.

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According to its tracker, Boko Haram killed five in Konduga, Borno state on June 23. Also on same day, soldiers killed 20 bandits in Maru, Zamfara state while suspected herdsmen killed 200 in Riyom, Jos South, and Barkin Ladi LGAs in Plateau state. It also noted that on June 26, Boko Haram killed seven in Damboa, Borno state; herdsmen killed two soldiers in Guma, Benue state while a cult war led to six deaths in Calabar, Cross River state.

There was also two Boko Haram militants’ death on June 27 in Bama, Borno state, another four in Damboa, Borno; two killed by herdsmen in Numan, Adamawa state; Nigerian soldiers killed six herdsmen in Keana, Nasarawa state and four Boko Haram militants were killed in Guzamala, Borno while Police killed five butchers in Ibadan, Oyo state on June 28.

Despite Buhari’s claim to have successfully restored security in the country, CFR’s security tracker on Nigeria says otherwise. Besides, breibart.com in a July 8, 2018 publication titled ‘Nigeria’s Fulani Jihadists Grow Deadlier than Boko Haram’, writes that “the estimated number of farmers who have been killed by Fulani terrorists so far this year varies between 1,750 and 6,000, including women and children.”

Breibart also wrote that “during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan this year (May 17 thru June 15), Fulani terrorists killed at least 43 people, exceeding the number of fatalities at the hands of Boko Haram.”

Though there have been official government denials that the killings are not perpetrated by Fulani herdsmen, Nigerians were however shocked when President Buhari’s spokesperson, Femi Adesina, speaking in an interview with Africa Independent Television (AIT), warned Nigerians against denying herdsmen land for grazing insinuating that herdsmen were free to kill in order to forcefully take over people’s lands to graze their cows. He had said during the interview that it was either people gave up lands or they faced death at the hands of the herdsmen.

Adesina’s disposition to the killings was the height of what was viewed by many as the growing government acceptance of the killings and open disposition to unwillingness to do anything to stop them. Before Adesina’s expose on the inner minds of his masters on the killings, the Defence Minister, Mansur Dan-Ali, had warned that the killings will not abate until states that had promulgated laws against open-grazing abrogated such laws. He was right. The killings have continued albeit more daring, since he made the promise. And just on Tuesday, July 10, 2018, 50 others were sent to their graves in Adamawa state by herdsmen.

Those comments added to the growing discontent with Buhari for his refusal to identify the herdsmen as terrorists as against his quick rush to tag Biafran agitators, IPOB, as same while also deploying full weight of the Army to rein them in. Though Buhari has never at any forum defended the killings, his body language says otherwise; especially as the North Central zone, which has become epicenter of the herdsmen attacks, is predominantly Christian.

For this reason, people of the zone feel that despite voting massively for Buhari in the 2015 general election, they do not feel the impact of his claims to having improved security around the country. Many analysts therefore believe that what has happened in the North central, with the Fulani herdsmen, may be part of a calculated effort to expand the conquest ideology of Jihadists which some persons accuse the president of.

Going into 2019 general election with this tag in mind, it will be difficult to see how Buhari will spin a comeback to convince people of the zone, who had faced axes, machetes, bullets and fire from the unrestrained herdsmen, to vote for him. The easy conclusion would be that Buhari and APC have already lost the North central and other Christian minority groups in the north. Analysts believe that those affected here would prefer a liberal Muslim as president to an extremist.

According to them, Buhari does not represent that liberalism expected of a president. He is believed to work with a religious supremacist consciousness. Destructive as that may be, he is seen to promote divisiveness more than he builds. His refusal to apologize for his 95% versus 5% leadership policy demeans his government and persona while also reviling sensibilities of most Nigerians. These add to make him a hard-sell going into the 2019 general elections.

By Femi Qudus….

 

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