Fitch subsidiary predicts Tinubu’s victory in 2023 election

The Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research, a subsidiary of global rating organization, Fitch Ratings, has predicted the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in the 2023 election.

In its report released on Saturday, the agency however expressed fear that Nigeria might experience political unrest following the APC candidate’s success in the election with supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flag bearer, Atiku Abubakar , his Labour Party counterpart, Peter Obi, and others taking to the streets to protest the outcome of the election.

It also downplayed recent predictions of Obi’s victory by Bloomberg and a Non-Governmental Organisation associated with the former Chairman of Stanbic IBTC, Atedo Peterside.

The company also urged Nigerians not to expect significant policy change in the Tinubu presidency, especially on fuel subsidy.

The report read: Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress. Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.

“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) were mostly based on responses gathered online.

Read also:2023: My bid for president not personal, but for Nigeria’s interest, Tinubu replies Yoruba Nation agitator, Prof Akintoye

“Since only 36.0 percent of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.

“While Tinubu has stated that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, we are skeptical this will happen in the short term. There appears to be limited appetite within the APC to remove the subsidy, and with inflation remaining elevated in 2023 – due to high food prices – the cancellation of the subsidy would negatively affect the new president’s popularity. Indeed, the PDP tried to remove the subsidy in 2012, but had to back down after large-scale protests.

“In addition, we believe that Tinubu’s aim to raise oil production is unfeasible in the short term. Crude production has declined significantly to 1.1mn barrels per day in September – a multi-decade low – due to rising oil theft and previous underinvestment. Given the country’s weak fiscal position, we believe that there will be limited room for more security and social spending to combat oil theft and attract more investment.”

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